As part of an ongoing series, I have been keeping track of the playing field leading up to the 2006 Elections, and ranking the races in terms of likelihood of success. For ease, I have divided the races between their seats and ours. The initial overview of these races was compiled in late September and focused on potential pickups based mostly on district demographics. That diary is here:
http://www.dailykos.com/.... I updated this analysis with a focus on challenger strength and posted that update in early November. It can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/.... I plan to keep updating about once a month.
Where things stand
The next fundraising numbers will be released in the early part of next year. For now, the parties are still focused on candidate recruitment, and that is where most of the noteworthy developments have taken place. The two biggest developments, of course, are Rep. Jim Kolbe's (R-AZ 08) decision to retire and Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham's (R-CA 50) resignation. The former sets up a very competitive open seat race which now clocks in as our 3d best pickup opportunity in the nation in my rankings. The latter turns an open seat race into a special election in either Spring 2006 or concurrent with the regular primary in June 2006. The bootom line is that this development gives the GOP less time to sort out its jumbled candidate field as well as highlighting Cunningham's criminal activities.
Obviously, we also just had a special election in Republican Orange County California, with disappointing results. I was among those that thought that race would be much closer because of the strong right-wing third party candidate, but it was not to be. Now, California 48 drops off the vulnerability lists, perhaps to reemerge when new Rep. John Campbell gets indicted and/or retires.
There have been a handful of other negative developments in the last month as well. In Louisiana, former Rep. Chris John declined to run for his old 7th District seat. John left it to run for the Senate in 2004 and GOPer Charles Boustany picked it up when the two leading Dems in the race annihilated each other. As of this writing, we still have no candidate in what can be a winnable district. The top possibility, who is currently "considering the race" is Hunter Lundy, an attorney who ran for the seat the last time it was open (in 1996) and finished a close third in the open primary (behind John and GOPer David Thibodeaux).
In Kentucky, we are still scrambling to find an opponent for perennial target Anne Northup, who represents the Louisville-based 3d District. Top choice Jack Conway (the 2002 nominee) has declined, as has purported second choice, John Brown III. Hopes now rest with UK Board of Trustees President Steven Reed, who is considering.
There is good news on both the recruitment and the polling fronts, however. The Dem candidates in both the 2d and the 8th District of Indiana released polls conducted on 11/28-29 with good news. The 8th District poll, which had Rep. Jon Hostettler (R) trailing Vandenburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) 44-41, has been frontpaged. The 2d District poll has not. It was conducted by Cooper & Secrest Associates and had Rep. Chris Chocola (R) leading '04 nominee Joe Donnelley (D) 46-40, gives Chocola a 45-51 job approval and 47-39 favorable/unfavorable split. Bottom line: we will have three very real pickup opportunities in Indiana in 2006 (these two plus IN-09, where former Rep. Baron Hill is in a rematch with Rep. Mike Sodrel (R)).
Significant New Dem Candidates
In Arizona 08, the Dems got the candidate they wanted: State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords, who announced her candidacy on Dec. 1. She joins Dems vet Jeff Latas and first time candidate Francine Schachter, who were in the race before Kolbe retired. It is unclear whether either will now drop out. The GOP field is not set. Winger Randy Graf is all but in, and several more moderate GOPers are considering the race. If Graf is the nominee, expect a pickup.
In Illinois 06, injured Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth is supposedly all but in the primary against Christine Cegelis, although she cannot and will not declare her intentions until her applied-for release from the military is granted. She does not live in the district, and Cegelis is clearly unhappy about this development. This has the potential to turn into an ugly primary and hurt our chances in the district. On the other hand, Duckworth has a good profile and a good story and I tend to trust Rahm Emanuel to know what he's doing when it comes to electoral politics.
In Kentucky 02, the Dems have a rare recruiting coup: they have turned an uncompetitive district into a competitive one with a recruit. State Rep. Mike Weaver announced his intention to challenge Rep. Ron Lewis in the rural Kentucky 2d that sent Dem Bill Natcher to Congress for 40 years before Lewis won a special election to succeed him in 1993, setting off alarm bells that presaged the 1994 massacre. Weaver is a retired U.S. Army Colonel and proven vote-getter who will give Lewis a race. This race joins the list of vulnerable GOP seats.
In Michigan 08, the Dems landed an intriguing candidate against Rep. Mike Rogers (R): Former CIA Agent and Valerie Plame classmate Jim Marcinkowski. Marcinkowski is getting in the race specifically out of anger at the administration's treatment of Plame, and should that case heat up, it could have effects on this race.
In Michigan 09, Radio Host Nancy Skinner (D) joined the race for Rep. Jim Knollenberg's (R) seat. She will face attorney Rhonda Ross, '04 nominee Steve Reifman and the interestingly named John Ashcraft in the primary. Like Tony Trupiano, who is our likely candidate in MI-11, Skinner brings both name rec and public speaking skills to the table.
In New Hampshire 01, the Dems appear set to get the big name candidate they wanted. According to Roll Call, State House Dem Leader Jim Craig is jumping in the race to unseat Rep. Jeb Bradley. Craig will face State Rep. Peter Sullivan and ex-Marine Colonel Pete Duffy in the Dem primary.
In New Jersey 07, we picked up a decent looking candidate in State Asst. Health Commissioner Joe Tricarico. Tricarico is a former Mayor of Hillsborough and looks like a strong recruit.
In Ohio 01, we now have a top tier opponent for Rep. Steve Chabot. John Cranley is a Cincinnati City Councilman (and the highest vote-getter in the most recent municipal election) as well as Chabot's 2000 opponent. In 2000, Cranley was an underfunded upstart 28-year old lawyer. Everybody wrote him off, but he ran a dogged campaign and held Chabot to only 53%--the exact percentage Chabot took in his high profile race against then-Cincinnati Mayor Roxanne Qualls two years earlier. Cranley parlayed that stunningly strong showing into his councilman gig, and is now back six years later as a very strong challenger to Chabot again.
In Ohio 15, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy has joined the race and attorney Mark Losey has dropped out and endorsed her. Kilroy will be the first high-powered challenger Rep. Deborah Pryce has ever faced. Look for this Columbus area race to be extremely tight.
In Virginia 02, Virginia Beach Commissioner Phillip Kellam announced last week that he is entering the race against freshman Rep. Thelma Drake (R). Kellam is a fairly important official in the district and comes from a well-known Tidewater political family. He will challenge vet and '04 nominee David Ashe and Tim Farlow in the Dem primary. Kellam brings to the table what Ashe lacks (name rec, funding) and vice versa (national security cred), setting up an interesting primary.
[Note: As far as I know, neither former Rep. Ron Klink (PA-04) nor former Rep. Ken Lucas (KY-04) has committed to run, therefore, I do not include the impacts they would have on those races]
Updated Rankings:
(November rank in parentheses)
- Iowa 01 (1) (Open)
- Colorado 07 (2) (Open)
- Arizona 08 (not rated) (Open)
- Indiana 09 (3) (Sodrel)
- Connecticut 04 (4) (Shays)
- New Mexico 01 (5) (H.Wilson)
- Pennsylvania 06 (6) (Gerlach)
- Connecticut 02 (7) (Simmons)
- Wisconsin 08 (10) (Open)
- Pennsylvania 08 (11) (Fitzpatrick)
- California 50 (12) (Open; Special Election)
- Minnesota 06 (13) (Open)
- Illinois 06 (8) (Open)
- North Carolina 11 (14) (C.Taylor)
- Indiana 08 (15) (Hostettler)
- Texas 22 (16) (DeLay)
- Washington 08 (9) (Reichert)
- Florida 22 (19) (Shaw)
- Ohio 18 (20) (Ney)
- Connecticut 05 (21) (N.Johnson)
- Ohio 01 (not rated) (Chabot)
- Colorado 04 (22) (Musgrave)
- Ohio 15 (38) (Pryce)
- Indiana 02 (25) (Chocola)
- New York 29 (23) (Kuhl)
- New Hampshire 01 (not rated) (Bradley)
- New Jersey 07 (not rated) (Ferguson)
- Iowa 02 (18) (Leach)
- Florida 09 (17) (Open)
- Nevada 02 (24) (Open)
- North Carolina 08 (27) (R.Hayes)
- Virginia 02 (34) (Drake)
- New Hampshire 02 (26) (Bass)
- Michigan 11 (28) (McCotter)
- Arizona 01 (31) (Renzi)
- West Virginia 02 (32) (Capito)
- Minnesota 01 (41) (Gutknecht)
- Michigan 09 (35) (Knollenberg)
- Florida 13 (30) (Open)
- Pennsylvania 07 (36) (Weldon)
- Florida 08 (37) (Keller)
- Minnesota 02 (33) (Kline)
- Kentucky 02 (not rated) (R.Lewis)
- Michigan 08 (not rated) (M.Rogers)
- New York 26 (39) (Reynolds)
- Illinois 11 (40) (Weller)
- Virginia 11 (42) (T.Davis)
- Illinois 10 (43) (Kirk)
- Montana at Large (44) (Rehberg)
- New York 19 (51) (Kelly)
- Ohio 14 (57) (LaTourette)
- New Jersey 03 (not rated) (Saxton)
- California 11 (45) (Pombo)
- Pennsylvania 18 (46) (T.Murphy)
- Florida 24 (47) (Feeney)
- New Jersey 05 (48) (Garrett)
- Pennsylvania 10 (49) (Sherwood)
- California 26 (not rated) (Dreier)
- Pennsylvania 04 (50) (Hart)
- California 45 (52) (Bono)
- New York 20 (53) (Sweeney)
- Pennsylvania 03 (54) (English)
- Ohio 03 (55) (Turner)