(Tuesday's numbers in parenthesis)
Viability line: 46.9
Dean: 100.0 (100.0)
Clark: 66.3 (62.2)
Gephardt: 37.4 (32.0)
Kerry: 36.3 (30.5)
Edwards: 29.9 (24.5)
Lieberman: 25.3 (30.3)
Sharpton: 10.0 (9.6)
Kucinich: 7.4 (6.6)
Current info included: Estimated current COH totals, Media results 1/8-1/14, ARG NH, Hearld NH, Suffolk NH, Zogby IA, SUSA AZ, BRC AZ, SUSA SC, ARG OK, old DE poll, Rassmussen national, the most recent polls from DC, MO, NM, MI, ME, TN, VA, WI, CA, CT, GA, MA, MD, NY, OH, RI, VT, FL and TX (the way this info is balanced can be found here.)
Wow. Clark continues to rise, and has an outside shot at reaching 80. If he does reach 80, there is a chance that the race could move beyond Super Tuesday into Southern Tuesday.
Edwards has resoundingly passed Lieberman for 5th. During a time when everyone else is rising compared to Dean, Lieberman is still plummeting. Nice endorsement TNR and Washington Post! Next time, go with Kucinich if you want to stay relevant.
Kerry and Gephardt scramble toward viability. Moseley-Braun exit has actually slightly raised the bar to stay viable. And speaking of CMB, happy trails. We hardly knew ye.
Here are some other ways to slice the info I have gathered:
Big Mo standings (includs IA, NH and 2/3):
Dean: 100.0
Clark: 70.8
Kerry: 43.3
Gephardt: 40.7
Edwards: 39.8
Lieberman: 25.3
Sharpton: 10.3
Kucinich: 6.2
Clark is at 99.78 for mini-tuesday. He hasn't led in that category since Thanksgiving. A new OK poll showing him with the lead might be the single best way for him to rise in the ECC.
National standings (includes Delgate counts and national polls):
Dean: 100.0
Clark: 69.2
Gephardt: 31.4
Kerry: 26.7
Lieberman: 26.0
Edwards: 19.9
Sharpton: 12.2
Kucinich: 4.8
The overestimation of momentum is so systemic throughout our political culture that we often forget that the states following IA + NH are not, in fact, blank slates. Momentem collides with an alreay existing national following to help create the shape of the primary season.
Total polls (removing money and media from the equation):
Dean: 100.0
Clark: 70.0
Gephardt: 36.1
Kerry: 35.0
Edwards: 29.9
Lieberman: 25.6
Sharpton: 11.2
Kucinich: 5.5
Overall, Dean still leads in each of the six categories of the ECC. However, he is being threatened on mini-Tuesday and national polls by Clark. A couple sub-categories have slipped from Dean's grasp, including IA. for a long time, Dean held control of everything except the CA, TN and DE subcategories.
I apologize to frequent readings for not positng yesterday. I was in DC most of the day. To punish myself, I won't put out a tip jar.