Paul Tewes DSCC Political Director,
blogged last week on FTR that the Democrats were aiming for 51 seats in 2004. 51 is a pragmatic, doable feat, and to get there means going on the takover offensive, and not giving away Democratic seats. Yet, as Chuck Todd pointed out in his Senate rankings this week the Georgia Senate seat is the most likely takeaway for the Republicans.
GEORGIA
Open seat -- Zell Miller (D) is retiring.
Last ranking: 1
The only action is on the GOP side, where an interesting subprimary is developing between Rep. Mac Collins and businessman Herman Cain for the runoff spot vs. Rep. Johnny Isakson, the front-runner. Isakson is having to fend off daily questions about his conservative credentials from Collins, while Cain is staying above the fray and hitting the airwaves with ads. Democrats, however, are still without a realistic candidate to hold this seat. With former Sen. Max Cleland's (D) sudden resurgence as a campaign politician for Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., we're surprised a Cleland boomlet hasn't been started. Could it be Cleland is holding out hope for the veep slot?
Georgia's not that red, and the demographics are trending Democrat (Latino growth is high, and African-American growth is 3rd highest in the nation). Gore lost to Bush 54-43 percent, writing it off in 2000. 43 percent is what Gore got in Colorado in 2000, and that's an open seat that Democrats look likely to now win. It's not going to be easy in Georgia, but it is doable.
The GOP has three credible primary candidates in Johnny Isakson ($2.9M), Herman Cain ($1.5M), & Mac Collins ($1M) While those numbers might look prohibitive, they will also be mightily depleted, battling it out amongst each other until a primary on July 20th, and then a run off amongst the top two, on August 10th.
The filing deadline in Georgia is April 30th, less than 50 days away from now. Who is out there that can run?
Mary Squires was the only announced candidate for a while, which wasn't very encouraging. Nadine Thomas and Gary Leshaw have recently entered the race. Though neither of them have top tier fundraising numbers yet, Leshaw might have trial lawyer connections. The ideal situation has a Democrat having $1-2M on hand at the beginning of August, going into the general ahead of the Republican candiate that emerges broke from the GOP primary.
IN the general, the Libertarians and social conservative parties are going to peel 2-3% off of Bush from the right again (maybe some of that will trickle down), and there's going to be a stay-home factor as the result of Perdue's flag gambit in 2002, and maybe Max Cleland will tell Zell Miller to shut up.
In fact, there's the main reason for why so many Democrats have declined-- they fear Zell Miller calling them a weak-knee liberal and stating he'll vote for the Republican candidate. I'd give $200 right to an A-list Democratic Senate candidate in Georgia that stands up to Zell Miller and takes on the Republicans, and I'm not alone. Every seat counts, let's hope that the DSCC doesn't give an open seat away for free.
Update: Some of the comments confuse Georgia election results, which are trending Republican (though not overwhelmingly), with Georgia demographics, which are trending Democrat. The latter is the clear case in Georgia, as seen from the 2000 census results:
GEORGIA: Blacks, 2,235,897, up 27.7 percent; Hispanics, 239,566, up 119.9 percent; Asian and Pacific Islanders, 160,566, up 109.0 percent; American Indian and Alaska Native, 18,717, up 36.5 percent; whites, 5,373,060, up 15.9 percent.
Here's a background article on the population trends of Georgia: The African American/Black percentage of Georgia’s population rose from 27 percent to 28.7 percent. This is the highest level in fifty years. Hispanics, who can be of any race, grew from only 108,000 in 1990 to 435,000 in 2000. They now number over 5 percent of the state.
While there's always a lag time with demographics and election results, the demographics of Georgia are trending Democrat.