This was not supposed to happen.
Dean, Kucinich, Sharpton, and Braun were going to be fringe candidates with no chance at winning.
Labor was going to line up solidly behind Gephardt, while liberals solidly back Kerry, in order to give those two constituent groups a fair chance of being heard in the primary.
Graham and Edwards would do their best but most would assume they were just trying for Vice-President.
And Senator Lieberman, the well known Vice-Presidential candidate from 2000, would win the nomination with the backing of New Democrats and the DLC establishment.
A perfect plan, no?
Today we know that it was a dream that was not going to come true. In a way it all started with the war.
Kerry's support for the resolution, even if he later criticized Bush, left open a niche in the primary. And Howard Dean seized that niche, following up with a struggle to make gains with other constituency groups. The rhetoric and message of Dean is such that liberals are going to him and not Kerry. The Governor who balanced budgets, supports the death penalty, and was given high marks by the NRA is beating out a liberal New England Senator endorsed by Ted Kennedy.
And now we have the eventual endorsement of Dean by SEIU and AFSCME may be the final nail on the coffin of Gephardt. Labor is going for Dean as well. Iowa and New Hampshire may both go to Dean. And despite the Confederate Flag issue the latest polls, taken during the controversy, show him running second to Sharpton with African-Americans. He has the support of Jackson Jr., and perhaps more members of the Black Caucus to come.
Liberals, labor, and minorities. Can Dean be stopped?
Lieberman will try with a focus on Arizona. Edwards and Clark are in South Carolina. If Gephardt lives through Iowa he will carry on to Missouri and Michigan with hopes of still winning.
But imagine, if you will, if things had gone according to plan. Dean's an obscure candidate running about even with Braun and Sharpton. Gephardt's leading in Iowa, Kerry in New Hampshire, Lieberman however seems to be well positioned to win with a third place in Iowa, second place in New Hampshire, and wins in South Carolina and Arizona. Graham has pulled out. Now, I ask, would Clark have entered?
Would Clark still have entered?