The Gallup Poll reports that Bush, while still leading by slight margins among likely voters in Red States is trailing in Blue States and behind in purple states (won by narrow margins in '00 by either AG or GWB).
http://www.gallup.com/content/Default.asp?ci=10942&pg=1
Gallup also reports that Nader is having little effect so far on the polling results. No poll results this far out mean that we can't lose but results like these tell me that we can win and we might even win big.