CT-Sen: The sky isn't falling

Univ of Conn for the Hartford Courant. 10/4-9. MoE 3.9% (no trend lines)

Registered voters

Lieberman (CfL) 48
Lamont (D) 40
Schlesinger (R) 3

Likely voters

Lieberman (CfL) 46
Lamont (D) 39
Schlesinger (R) 4

Seven points down? The Connecticut CW is that if Lamont is within 5 points on election day, his superior ground operation can make up the difference. So seven, if accurate, would be getting close to that mark. Unfortunately, there are no trend line for this poll so we can't gauge momentum. But things feel much better these last two weeks than they have in a while.

The poll suggests a potential upside for Lamont, a cable-television entrepreneur who has been arguing that an outsider's willingness to fight for change in Washington outweighs Lieberman's experience as an 18-year incumbent.

By a margin of 53-29 percent, voters said they generally favored challengers and the promise of change over incumbents and experience.

"I think, overall, what the poll shows is that voters clearly are for Ned's message for change in Washington," said Tom Swan, Lamont's campaign manager. "Our challenge is to make sure that between our superior organization and our public messages, that we get these differences out there."