A survey of the partisan composition of the 50 state legislatures suggests that
Iowa is the Red state in which a flip to Blue in the 2006 cycle should be (at least statistically) easiest. The current red-leaning gridlock could be busted with a flip of just three seats: 2 in the state house (currently 49/51), and one to take control of the state senate (currently 25/25).
I've done some searching to learn about Democrats who are running for GOP-held seats in both houses and have identified a few that look like strong possibilities. But I know nothing about the comparative strength of the incumbents. I'm hoping Iowa Kossacks can comment.
A glance down the roster of Democrats running for the state
Senate (filing closed 3/17) posted at the state party's web site identified only 4 Democrats contesting GOP-held seats, in districts 19, 35, 37, and 45. Of these, the two strongest opportunities appear (to an outsider) to be 19 and 35.
GOP incumbent State Senator Charles Larson Jr will face Robert Hogg, sitting Democratic state Rep (D-38). Hogg's website is at http://www.robhogg.org/ but he hasn't yet transformed it for his new contest, senate district 19.
State senate district 35 is being left open by GOP incumbent Lamberti's run for congress (IA-3). The Democrat running is Merle Johnson, who doesn't appear to have a website yet. I don't know who the GOP are tapping to succeed Lamberti.
In the lower house there are numerous contests. The Democratic candidates that stood out, to me (but I'm hoping to hear from in-state observers) are in districts 18, 23, and 84.
In Iowa house district 18 GOP incumbent David Lalk will face Andrew Wenthe http://www.andrewwenthe.org/
Wenthe's web site is a little thin on issues, but appears to position him as a protégé of John Edwards. Since John Edwards can be expected to be visiting Iowa fairly frequently, if he can be persuaded to lend active support to Wenthe's race, it will tell us a lot about both candidates.
In Iowa house district 23 web-savvy Democrat Pete McRoberts will contend against GOP incumbent Dan Rasmussen. McRoberts claims connections with both Harkin & Vilsack. His website is at http://www.mcrobertsforiowa.org/
My interest in Vilsack as a presidential contender is pretty flabby at this point, frankly. But if he campaigns actively to leave a Democrat-controlled state legislature as his legacy when he departs the mansion, I'll be impressed.
Iowa house district 66 : the seat is left open by incumbent Ed Fallon Jr.'s run for governor. Four Democrats will contend in the primary to protect this blue-safe seat.
In Iowa house district 84th, Elesha Gayman has the advantage of a DFA endorsement in her run against James van Fossen (Sr), the GOP incumbent whose son (I'm guessing, they look alike in their mug shots) Jamie represents Iowa house district 81. Nepotism, much?
Democratic seats to protect would include the house seat Robert Hogg exposes to run for the upper house, and senate seat 31, whose incumbent Matt McCoy is facing opposition in the primary from millionaire Gary Randa, who is running on a pro-life, anti-gay ticket. Matt came out in 2003, and that and his pro-choice stance offer grist for both the conservative wing of his own party and to the GOP, despite Matt's strong record on education and budget matters.
Now, Iowans and other observers, what can you tell us about whether some of these races are winnable?
Update: error regarding D-66 corrected. Thanks, commenters.