Zogby's 15-seat polling

This is not one of Zogby's interactive polls, but some actual telephone polls. And the picture it paints for Republicans is bleak. Polls were conducted 9/25-10/2, with each having a MoE of 4.5%. There are no trend lines.

Arizona 08 (open)

Graf (R) 37
Giffords (D) 45

Colorado 7 (open)

O'Donnell (R) 34
Perlmutter (D) 45

Connecticut 02

Simmons (R) 44
Courtney (D) 41

Connecticut 04

Shays (R) 41
Farrell (D) 46

Illinois 06 (open)

Roskar (R) 38
Duckworth (D) 43

Indiana 02

Chocola (R) 39
Donnelly (D) 48.5

Indiana 9

Sodrel (R) 38
Hill (D) 46

Iowa 01 (open)

Whalen (R) 47
Braley (D) 34

Kentucky 04

Davis (R) 42
Lucas (D) 36

Minnesota 06 (open)

Bachmann (R) 46
Wetterling (D) 43

New Mexico 01

Wilson (R) 40
Madrid (D) 50

North Carolina 11

Taylor (R) 40
Shuler (D) 51

Ohio 18 (open)

Padgett (R) 35.5
Space (D) 45

Pennsylvania 06

Gerlach (R) 41
Murphy (D) 43

Virginia 02

Drake (R) 42
Kellam (D) 46

These are all GOP-held seats, and the Dems lead in 11. The Republican candidate is under 50 percent in all of them, and at 40 or below in 8 of them. The numbers seem a bit optimist here (NM-01), too pessimistic there (IA-01), but overall yet more evidence of serious GOP trouble this November. Remember, these polls just caught the start of the Foley fiasco.

Update: Bowers:

After these polls are added into previous polls, a new tier of House districts is starting to really grow in size: Republican-held districts where Democrats lead outside the margin of error in recent, unconflicted, independent polls. Right now, that category includes AZ-08, CO-07, FL-16, IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, NY-24, OH-18, and PA-10. Throw in TX-22, and that already makes ten seats where current polling would give Democrats a better than a 97.5% chance of a pickup.