For those interested in the Maryland Governor and Senate races, crossposted at Free State Comment
The
Washington Post (and
here too), provides the results of the Garin Hart Yang survey conducted for Peter Franchot of 505 likely Democratic voters:
Governor - Dem. Primary
O'Malley - 47% (61% of whom "strongly support")
Duncan - 33% (37% of whom "strongly support")
Undecided - 20%
Senator - Dem. Primary
Cardin - 32%
Mfume - 31%
Others - 3%
Undecided - 32%
Comptroller
Schaefer - 42%
Franchot - 36%
Undecided - 22%
Views on Ehrlich
Favorable - 32%
Unfavorable - 40%
Duncan is spinning this as a gain - based on a poll from last
July that had O'Malley with 50%, Duncan with 28%. I suppose the logic is that 9 months of effort have netted an additional five percent for Duncan (and a 2 percent loss for O'Malley), if one ignores the margin of error (not stated, but I would guess at 4 to 5%). At this rate, Duncan will have O'Malley licked in 2009, or so. It would be more interesting, however, to see if Duncan made any gains in name recognition.
I think, given the tone that Ehrlich has taken in the past and the fact that Republicans just can't help themselves, we'll see a step-up in the nasty mudslinging at O'Malley. This may work like a late-game foul - if O'Malley responds effectively (and makes his free-throws) perhaps the result will be to drive Ehrlich's favorable numbers down somewhat.
Given his lower resources, Duncan's strategy may be to hang in the race and hope that some of Ehrlich's mud sticks to O'Malley.
The Mfume/Cardin numbers seem wrong to me, but it should give Mfume a shot in the arm nonetheless. Personally, I think Mfume will have real problems in the state-wide general election, particularly given that the media coverage of his campaign has exclusively focused on his race (i.e. one of two black candidates). This means that nobody gets to hear Mfume's positions, just that he is black (which we already know). If Mfume gets to the general election, expect the folks who concocted the "enhanced" story of the oreo cookie toss to start throwing mud based on Mfume's children born out of wedlock, the questionable end to the NAACP stint (meaning it never did seem to get explained in public, leaving room for insinuation), and other code-word laden issues. With Steele in the race, it will be harder for Mfume to declaim such attacks as race-baiting. On the other hand, Mfume should mop the floor with Steele in terms of coming across as articulate and intelligent.