Hastert: I Didn't Do Anything (Psst - Circle The Wagons, Boys)

The cable news was dominated today by the House leadership scandal. The Ethics Committee will investigate - slowly and with 4 dozen subpoenas. But as to whether there's anything they'll do (pre-election or otherwise), that's another story. And Denny Hastert reiterated that he knew little to nothing pre-Friday, and did less. Mistakes were made, it's under investigation, let's move on. Right.

That's a huge problem for the GOP, of course. Unlike Mark Foley, who did way too much, Hastert and leadership's problem is that they all did too little. From Hotline:

House Speaker Dennis Hastert said he wouldn't resign because "I haven't done anything wrong," and refused to say whether he held his staff accountable for letting Mark Foley's behavior slip through the cracks.

On the timeline of when his staff or other Republican leaders knew about the earlier "too friendly" e-mails, Hastert said " I don't know, who knew what when. I know there are reports that people who knew it and fed it out and leaked it to the press."

Hastert said that Rep. John Shimkus, " a former Army Ranger, a tough guy," went "right to the point" with Foley, and that Foley promised he wouldn't sent e-mails to pages, and that was that.

So, here's the thing. It's Shimkus and Hastert who should have done more, who should have investigated more, who should have involved the Democrats in a bipartisan fashion. Why (in detail) this won't work can be found here:.

The details: they are awful. And they're going to get worse. And the American media is obsessed with SEX. Nothing sticks to the gut of an American voter more than an abuse of power combined with tawdry sex details.

The facts: The Hill reports that a Republican provided ABC News and other news outlets with the original e-mails. The page who first provided ABC News with the Instant Messages seems to be a Republican, too. Warning signs about Foley's conduct -- even if they were ambiguous -- were missed.

Open dissension in the ranks. Rep. John Boehner wants to play the role of loyal soldier. Rep. Roy Blunt has defected. Rep. Tom Reynolds is somewhere in between. Hastert is Hastert. We aren't overstating the point: these men do not trust each other. Their staffs marginally trust each other, in part because they share the same staff-to-principal sensibilities and the same self-preservation instincts.

Open dissension in the base -- It's hard to blame the media when the elites in your base are as outraged or disgusted as the media seems to be. Keep in mind this distinction. There are many Republicans in Washington whose professional identifies and livelihoods depend on Republicans keeping control of Congress. There are many Republicans outside Washington whose livelihoods and professional identities depend almost entirely on channeling outrage against elitists in the media and the Democratic Party. These two groups are likely to be support the status quo. But there are many, many conservatives and Republicans inside and outside Washington who are animated by ideals and principles and who, in a situation like this, are not inclined to give a party they find disappointing and immature the benefit of the doubt. The tension between these two sectors of the Republican establishment is evident and harmful.

An emboldened media: ABC's dominance of this story (and the concurrent ramping up of their coverage by Drudge) is no doubt increasing competitive pressures in the media. Editors and producers don't want to check Drudge every day only to see yet another Brian Ross report. Just check out the number of bylines in the Post covering all the angles the past two days. More media scrutiny begets more revelations - i.e. more bad news for Republicans.

I'd add Bush's crummy poll numbers into the mix. But in the simplest terms, Main Street will have none of it. If your high school principal blew off emails from a teacher of the sort Hastert supposedly saw last year, they'd be gone. This "we don't know what the facts are" and "who else but the Speaker knew" nonsense is completely blown out of the water by the fact that Tom Reynolds, the guy whose job it is to elect Republicans, was involved at all.

The fact that he was is all the evidence anyone needs to know that this was about preserving power being chosen over protecting kids. And that has no defense, not on the Hill and not on Main Street. From the Chicago Tribune:

A quote from an anonymous Republican with close ties to the White House:

"'This is a disaster. It's undermining our base. And it's been handled terribly,' said a Republican official with close ties to the White House. 'Quite frankly, right now, everybody's circling the wagons.'"

"But the official pointed out that a departure by Hastert might not solve the party's political difficulties since Boehner also was in the loop on the complaint. 'The No. 2 supposedly knew about this months ago,' the official said."

We get to talk about this through the weekend. And don't forget what we're not talking about. Circling the wagons helps the GOP not at all.

Update [2006-10-5 15:56:27 by DemFromCT]::I guess it's not just my opinion.

House Republican candidates will suffer massive losses if House Speaker Dennis Hastert remains speaker until Election Day, according to internal polling data from a prominent GOP pollster, FOX News has learned.

"The data suggests Americans have bailed on the speaker," a Republican source briefed on the polling data told FOX News. "And the difference could be between a 20-seat loss and 50-seat loss."