Josh at TPM and others are chatting about the two most recent national polls, which show Bush gaining some ground.
CNN/USAToday
Bush 50%
Kerry 44%
Nader 4%
WaPo/ABCNews
Bush 48%
Kerry 43%
Nader 6%
He addresses how these disappointing numbers "take the wind out of the sails" for some Democrats, who can't understand how Bush is doing so well after Clarke, Woodward, Iraq, and other calamities for Bush.
He doesn't draw any firm conclusions, but a final thought at the bottom of his post makes sense:
A contrary reading of these polls might suggest that the president gains as national security and war issues become more salient, even if they are becoming more salient because of what seem to be objectively bad news about his policies.
(For the record, Josh actually sides with Charlie Cook's analysis, which is that Bush's attack ads are finally having impact, and that Kerry campaign isn't doing well in responding.)
I actually agree with the point, though, that bad foreign policy news -- contrary to most posts I seem to read on DKos -- may actually work to Bush's advantage. Bush has been terrific at portraying every mishap in Iraq as the result of "fanatics" -- and validation of the Bush doctrine of "pre-emption," "force," and other agressive military responses to "evil."
Kerry's only hope is to 1)connect the dots and clearly say that the violence in Iraq/Middle East is the RESULT of Bush's policies that alienate the world, and 2) offer a compelling, value-driven (not policy-driven) alternative of what kind of world we want.
He then needs to sharpen up his ads, media appearances, and other vehicles for getting this message out. Right now these are pretty lame -- not horrible, but not where they should be.
If Kerry doesn't do this, we're back to post-9/11 times, where every new outbreak of violence only plays into Bush's hands.