Polls, polls, polls

Rasmussen:

In the final full month before Election 2006, the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans has fallen to its lowest level since we began reporting this measure of partisan trends in January 2004. As a result, Democrats have their biggest net advantage of the past two campaign cycles.

In October, just 31.5% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That's a startling decline of nearly six percentage points from 37.2% two years ago. It's also down nearly a full point from last month.

Democrats have also lost a little ground since October 2004. Today, 37.7% identify themselves as Democrats, down a point from 38.7% on the eve of Election 2004.

However, Democrats now have a 6.2 percentage point advantage over the GOP, their largest recorded over the past 34 months. In October 2004, the Democrats advantage was a miniscule 1.5 percentage points.

The Zogby polls listed below, btw, are telephone polls. Still, take with a big grain of salt, a bigger one than usual. His numbers have been screwy all year, and I'm not just talking his worthless internet poll.

ARIZONA (8th CD, open)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Graf (R) 41 (37)
Giffords (D) 54 (45)

This one has been abandoned by the GOP already.

COLORADO (7th CD, open)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

O'Donnell (R) 40 (34)
Perlmutter (D) 54 (45)

This race has been abandoned by the GOP.

CONNECTICUT (2nd CD)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Simmons (R) 47 (44)
Courtney (D) 42 (41)

Polling on this one conflicts. That R2K (Research 2000) poll yesterday for two newspapers in the district showed Courtney with a 48-47 lead. This one is tied and will be decided by the ground game.

CONNECTICUT (4th CD)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Shays (R) 44 (41)
Farrell (D) 51 (46)

Yesterday's R2K poll had it 47-43 Farrell.

ILLINOIS (6th CD)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Roskam (R) 40 (38)
Duckworth (D) 54 (43)

Oh, how I wish I could believe these numbers. But every other recent poll in the race has given Roskam a slight lead. This is an outlier.

INDIANA (2nd CD)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Chocola (R) 39 (39)
Donnelly (D) 52 (49)

Another race abandoned by the national GOP.

INDIANA (9th CD)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Sodrel (R) 46 (38)
Hill (D) 48 (46)

An R2K poll 10 days ago had Hill up 47-45. So the numbers confirm a tight, tied race. This one will be won on the ground.

IOWA (1st CD, open)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Whalen (R) 42 (34)
Braley (D) 49 (47)

The district demographics favor Democrats.

KENTUCKY (4th CD)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Davis (R) 42 (42)
Lucas (D) 45 (36)

A SUSA poll a week ago had Davis leading 46-44. Another tied contest that will be decided by the ground game.

MARYLAND (Governor)

Potomac for the Baltimore Sun. Earlier this week. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/15-18 results)

Ehrlich (R) 46 (44)
O'Malley (D) 47 (50)

Um, those aren't good trends.

Through expensive television and direct-mail advertising, Ehrlich appears to be convincing voters in the Baltimore suburbs that O'Malley has failed to effectively reduce crime and improve city schools. Using his huge cash advantage, the Republican governor has steadily whittled down the mayor's lead in overwhelmingly Democratic Maryland. Ehrlich was behind by 15 percentage points a year ago and by 8 points in July.

Michigan (Governor)

EPIC/MRA for the Detroit News/WXYZ. 10/26, 29-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/22-25 results)

Granholm (D) 52 (48)
DeVos (R) 42 (43)

MINNESOTA (6th CD)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Bachmann (R) 52 (46)
Wetterling (D) 42 (43)

Is the "Foley Bounce" over?

NEVADA (Governor, open)

Rasmussen. Earlier this week. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (10/17 results)

Gibbons (R) 48 (51)
Titus (D) 46 (43)

Hmmm. It looks like Nevadans don't like gubernatorial candidates who assault cocktail waitresses in hotel parking lots.

NEW MEXICO (1st CD)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Wilson (R) 44 (40)
Madrid (D) 53 (50)

Two weeks ago, an Albuquerque Journal poll had Madrid leading 45-42. A SUSA poll during the same period had it 53-45 Madrid. This may be the end of Ms. "Nipplegate".

NORTH CAROLINA (11th CD)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Taylor (R) 43 (40)
Shuler (D) 48 (51)

OHIO (18th CD, open)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Padgett (R) 33 (36)
Space (D) 58 (45)

National Republicans have abandoned this race.

PENNSYLVANIA (6th CD)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Gerlach (R) 44 (41)
Murphy (D) 49 (43)

I suspect all these Philly-area districts are neck and neck and will be decided on the ground.

VIRGINIA (2nd CD)

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Drake (R) 51 (42)
Kellam (D) 43 (46)

A M-D poll a week ago gave Drake a narrow 46-44 lead. Constituent Dynamics had it 50-45 Kellam. So polling is all over the place on this one. Split the difference, call it a tie, and let's hope our people on the ground can pull it off.

Update:

MISSOURI (Senate)

SurveyUSA. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4.4% (10/21-23 results)

Talent (R) 46 (48)
McCaskill (D) 49 (45)

WASHINGTON (8th CD)

SurveyUSA. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (10/15-17 results)

Reichert (R) 51 (50)
Bruner (D) 45 (47)