Tin-foil hats meet statistics. Introducing the Republican Dirty Tricks Margin (RDTM), the putative size a Democratic victory in each of the twenty-five swingiest states necessary to be somewhat safe from Republican thuggery.
We're all a little worried this year that some Republicans might do whatever it takes to ensure Bush's return to the White House, even if "whatever" is a bit, ahem, illegal (they're on a mission from God, so it's okay for them). Suffice it to say, the margin of error stretches more toward the blue area than the red area. I decided to come up with a table that would try to quantify the GOP assets in office, and paperless electronics equipment, that gives the Repubs room to make their vote stretch further than ours. It's entirely a work and progress, and I welcome help/info/opinions etc. about my data and methodology, as I hope to perfect and update this throughout the election.
The Executive Summary: Of the dead-heat states, it's hard to take a small lead with any confidence in Florida, Ohio, and Nevada, where paperless ballots and Republican officials rule supreme. The RMDT room to maneuver eliminates current Kerry leads (as reported by Chris Bowers) in Missouri, Ohio, and West Virginia.
The Democratic Party does well in terms of electing officials who participate in supervising voting. Of the twenty-five states here, fully two-thirds are controlled by Democratic governors (
16 Dem, 8 GOP, New Jersey I've left blank). On secretary of state, it's
17 Dem to 8 GOP , and on attorneys general, it's similarly
17 Dem to 8 GOP. So we're in good shape, numbers-wise. Unfortunately, in Florida, Nevada, and Ohio, an unholy trinity of Republicans controls all three offices. Oddly, only four of these governors are running for re-election (DE, NC, NH, and WV) and only one of those is a Republican.
Despite a preponderance of Democratic officials overseeing elections at the state level, the lack of reaction to paperless electronic voting bodes ill for democracy in most states. The average RMDT is 1.4, which means that the GOP can erase a 1.4% Dem lead at the polls if they feel inclined. This is largely due to a lack of requirements of receipted electronic voting, and a minority of Republicans in offices that manage and legitimate elections. RMDTs of above 1.5 are in bold.
Methodology below the chart..
| GOP Holds office | | |
State | Gov. | Sec. | AG. | PEV | EV | RMDT |
AZ | | X | | X | 10 | 1.25 |
AR | X | | | X | 6 | 1.7 |
CO | X | | | X | 9 | 1.5 |
DE | | | X | X | 3 | 1.25 |
FL | X | X | X | X | 27 | 3.5 |
GA | X | | | X | 15 | 1.1 |
IA | | X | | X | 7 | 1 |
LA | | | | X | 9 | 1.2 |
ME | | | | X | 4 | 1.2 |
MI | | X | X | X | 17 | 1.5 |
MN | X | X | | X | 10 | 2.5 |
MO | | X | | X | 11 | 1.45 |
NV | X | X | X | | 5 | 2 |
NH | X | | X | | 4 | 1.6 |
NJ | ? | | | X | 15 | 1 |
NM | | | | X | 5 | 1 |
NC | | | | X | 15 | 1.2 |
OH | X | X | X | X | 20 | 3 |
OR | | | | | 7 | 0 |
PA | | | X | X | 21 | 1.25 |
TN | | | | X | 11 | 1.2 |
VA | | | X | X | 13 | 1.45 |
WA | | X | | X | 11 | 1.25 |
WV | | | | X | 5 | 1.2 |
WI | | | | | 10 | 0 |
PEV = Paperless Electronic Voting |
The raw data is taken from the National Governors' Association, the National Association of Secretaries of State, and the National Association of Attorneys General. My info about PEV comes from this Stateline article. I'm counting PEV in for states that have introduced legislation, but haven't passed it yet. If any of these initiatives have been passed without my knowledge, please let me know and I'll adjust accordingly.
The point system is a very crude attempt to quantify how much a Republican elected official can mess with an election. A Republican governor is worth .5 point, a GOP secretary .25, a GOP AG worth .25. A sweep of all three, or just the Bush-Harris special of governor and secretary doubles the total value. Paperless electronic voting (PEV), where users don't receive a paper receipt for recounts, earn one point. Finally, call me prejudiced, but I've heard a lot of stories about found votes in certain states, so I'm sorry to say I felt a need to add +.2 to southern states up for grabs.
If there are further considerations that you are aware that you believe are necessary (re: felon's lists, etc.), let me know. I don't want to make an alarmist list, but I think we need to know what's operating behind the scenes on Nov. 2.
Below, I've listed five states that have unique situations in states that caused for me to make "adjustments"
Florida: Because it's Jeb's Florida (+.5).
Georgia: Some suspicious stuff already went down in 2002 b/c of electronic voting machines (+.4)
New Hampshire: The only GOP governor running for re-election, Benson will already have a ground operation in place (+.1)
Maine: The practice of counting electoral votes by congressional district adds room for wily local official to undermine the ballot. (+.2)
Missouri: Secretary of State Matt Blunt (R) is also a candidate for governor, giving him people all over the state. Update 8/28: MO will permit e-mail voting among military voters (+.3)