Gallup today released a poll that it summarizes thus:
More than 9 in 10 investors voted in the presidential election, according to the UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism survey conducted Nov. 3-14. As expected, they favored President George W. Bush over Sen. John Kerry, by 52% to 41%
...
Even as the stock market surged during the first half of November following the election, the Index of Investor Optimism showed only a modest increase, from 62 to 69. This slight improvement leaves investor optimism below where it was in September and at its second lowest point in the past 12 months. The Index stood at 93 last November.
Gallup calls this an "investor" survey, but it might be better called the "middle class and up" survey, since they define an "investor" as anyone with at least $10,000 in investable assets. So we're talking here not about Wall Street tycoons, but pretty much anybody with more than a few years invested in a 401K or IRA.
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Given the pro-Bush tilt among those polled, it's worth emphasizing how many expect things to get worse rather than better as a result of this election:
- 54% expect the budget deficit to get worse as a result of the election, and only 23% expect it to get better
- 49% expect the price of energy to be negatively effected by the election results, vs. 27% who expect it to get better
Gallup's questions provide only a clumsy to get at the real warning signs on the not-so-distant horizon: not just high energy prices and annual federal deficits, but the total indebtedness of the US government, and its effect on interest rates and currency markets.
The Gallup report is available at:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=14110