The following is an early look at my view of Oregon's top races this fall. Included are all legislative races, congressional races and statewide races.
We will start at the top
Statewide Races:
Governor
The Matchup: Ted Kulongoski (D), Ron Saxton (R), Ben Westlund (I, pending making the ballot), various minor candidates.
Analysis: After all that, its the Gov vs. the Portland lawyer with Ben Westlund poking in from the sides as the wildcard. While Kulongoski clearly starts this race with a slight edge, he needs to mend fences partically with unions and with the progressive left. He also needs to do a better job of promoting himself and his successes, which have been many. Ron Saxton faces the task on the other hand of simultaneously trending back to the center from his conservative primary positions while not alienating the powerful conservative lobbies such as Oregon Right to Life. He also faces the challenge of convincing people that a lawyer with limited public experience (He was chair of the PDX School Board) is qualified for the job as Oregon voters have generally preferred candidates that have significent previous government experience for statewide jobs (e.g. Kizthaber, Goldschmidt, Bradbury and Kulongoski himself). Ben Westlund on the other hand is an enigma, he is somewhat of a progressive on some issues (such as health care) and conservative on others (e.g. taxes) but there are questions as to what Ben would actually do once elected. He also faces the problem of having no party organization to support him, but I do not see that as much of a factor because knowing the staff he has already hired, he should do okay. The next few months should be fun.
Early Line: Lean Kulongoski because he is the incumbent and has a base with which he has less fundmanental differences (e.g. Saxton is pro-civil unions) and because Oregon is a genrally demoratic state. Westlund has a decent chance to at least disrupt the race and a small but significant chance to win.
Supreme Court
The matchup: Virigina Linder, Jack Roberts
Analysis: Roberts may have finished first in the primrary but expect the vast majority of votes for Hallman (who was heavily supported by trial lawyers and unions) to go to Linder. Roberts has an uphill battle but will likely has the $ he needs to fight a good race.
Early Line: Leans Linder.
Congressional Races
Congress Dist 1
The matchup: David Wu (D), Derrick Kitts (R).
Analysis: David Wu might be vulnerable if the Republicans hadn't picked someone who had serious ethical problems himself. That being said, I wouldn't be suprised if this race gets pretty close for a while because Kitts has tremendous fundraising skills and can throw $ at Wu. Wu is ready for the fight and should prevail.
Early Line: Leans Wu for now, probably will move to "Likely Wu" soon.
Congress Dist 2
The matchup: Carol Voisin (D), Greg Walden (R).
Analysis: If the D's are ever going to take out Walden, this is the year and Carol is the candidate. I just don't see it unfortunately. This district is the Republican portion of the state, although parts of it (principally Deschutes county) are getting more competitive recently.
Early Line: Likely Walden.
Congress Dist 3
Earl Blumenauer (D)* is unopposed.
Congress Dist 4
The matchup: Peter DeFazio (D), Jim Feldkamp (R)
Analysis: DeFazio is one of those people who every year the R's think he is in trouble and every year he wins.
Early Line: Likely DeFazio.
Congress Dist 5
The matchup: Darlene Hooley (D), Mike Erickson (R)
Analysis: Darlene is in a district that has enough of a conservative tilt that you can never ignore the race but she is very good at campaigning and will likely roll to another win.
Early Line: I'll leave it at "Leans Hooley" for now because the district demographics are not favorable to her but this will likely move to "Likely Hooley" soon.
State Senate:
The following seats are considered safe or have unopposed incumbents:
Senate 11 (Courtney (D))
Senate 16 (Johnson (D))
Senate 17 (Avakian (D)
Senate 20 (Schrader (D))
Senate 24 (Monroe (D)
State Senate 3
The matchup: Alan Bates (D), Lynn Aiello (R)
Analysis: The good doctor should roll to a fairly easy win in the most liberal district outside the Wilamette Valley.
Early Line: Likely Bates.
State Senate 4
The matchup: Floyd Prozanski (D), Bill Eddie (R)
Analysis: Prozanski won handily last time against a much tougher opponent.
Early Line: Likely Prozanksi.
State Senate 6
The matchup: Bill Morrisette (D), Renee Lindsey (R).
Analysis: This is Bill's race to lose and he won't.
Early Line: Likely Morrisette.
State Senate 7
The Matchup: Vicki Walker (D), Jim Torrey (R).
Analysis: Torrey represents probably the best chance for a Republican pickup in the Senate this year. He is an eminently likeable and reasonable conservative. This race may come down to how effective the D's are at getting out the U of O student vote.
Early Line: Tossup.
State Senate 8
The Matchup: Frank Morse (R), Mario Magana (D)
Analysis: This is a winnable district for the D's in theory and it should be one of the top targets of 2006.
Early Line: Leans Morse.
State Senate 10
The Matchup: Jackie Winters (R), Paul Evans (D)
Analysis: Salem has been trending more liberal recently but Winters is a good candidate and this will be a challenge.
Early Line: Leans Winters.
State Senate 13
The Matchup: Larry George (R), Rick Ross (D)
Analysis: This race, only listed because it is now an open seat with George's defeat of Charles Starr, is probably George's to lose.
Early Line: Likely George.
State Senate 15
The Matchup: Bruce Starr (R), John Napolitano (D)
Analysis: Ten years ago if you would have told me D's have a chance to win this seat I would have laughed at you. No more. This is still an uphill battle but eminently winnable.
Early Line: Leans Starr.
State Senate 19
The Matchup: Richard Devlin (D), David Newell (R)
Analysis: Devlin should win this but this district is just conservative enough to give me pause.
Early Line: Likely Devlin
State Senate 26
The Matchup: Rick Metsger (D), Carol York (R)
Analysis: Metsger has the edge here but this is not a district Democrats should generally win so there is an element of risk here.
Early Line: Leans Metsger.
State House
The following races are considered safe seats or have unopposed candidates:
State House 1 (Krieger (R))
State House 2 (Morgan (R))
State House 3 (Maurer (R)
State House 4 (Richardson (R))
State House 5 (Buckley (D))
State House 7 (Hanna (R))
State House 8 (Holvey (D))
State House 11 (Barnhart (D))
State House 16 (Gelser (D))
State House 17 (Kropf (R))
State House 26 (Krummell (R))
State House 28 (Barker (D))
State House 31 (Witt (D))
State House 33 (Greenlick (D))
State House 34 (Bonamici (D)
State House 36 (Nolan (D))
State House 38 (McPherson (D))
State House 40 (Hunt (D))
State House 41 (Tomei (D))
State House 42 (Rosenbaum (D))
State House 43 (Shields (D))
State House 44 (Kotek (D)
State House 45 (Dingfelder (D))
State House 46 (Cannon (D))
State House 53 (Whisnant (R))
State House 55 (Gilman (R)
State House 56 (Garrard (R))
State House 57 (G. Smith (R))
State House 58 (Jenson (R))
State House 59 (Dallum (R))
State House 60 (Butler (R))
State House 6
The Matchup: Sal Esquivel (R), Mike Moran (D)
Analysis: Medford is easily the most conservative big city in Oregon and Esquivel is a good candidate. That being said, the chance is there, however slight.
Early Line: Likely Esquivel.
State House 9
The Matchup: Arnie Roblan (D), Al Pearn (R)
Analysis: In this Coos Bay area district, Roblan is a popular figure but it is too conservative to give him too much of a tilt.
Early Line: Leans Roblan.
State House 10
The Matchup: Alan Brown (R), Jean Cowan (D)
Analysis: The coast has been trending more blue recently but Brown still has the edge here.
Early Line: Leans Brown.
State House 12
The Matchup: Elizabeth Beyer (D), Bill Lioio (R)
Analysis: Beyer has a clear edge here but it is not huge.
Early Line: Likely Beyer.
State House 13
The Matchup: Nancy Nathanson (D), Thomas Ray Albright (R).
Analysis: This is a district which is pretty consistently blue in recent years but with the seat open this could be a dogfight.
Early Line: Leans Nathanson.
State House 14
The Matchup: Debi Farr (R), Chris Edwards (D).
Analysis: This is a D-leaning district but Farr is good at playing moderate.
Early Line: Leans Farr.
State House 15
The Matchup: Andy Olson (R), Sam Sappington (D).
Analysis: This was one of the closer races two years ago and looks to be so again.
Early Line: Leans Olson.
State House 18
The Matchup: Mac Sumner (R), Jim Gilbert (D).
Analysis: Sumner definately has the edge here but it is not insurmountable.
Early Line: Leans Sumner.
State House 19
The Matchup: Kevin Cameron (R), Brian Grisham (D).
Analysis: This is the district of disgraced former Rep. Dan Doyle and the question is will any of Doyle's slime rub off on Cameron and help Grisham, who came very close last time despite virtually no Future PAC (Oregon House D's PAC) support.
Early Line: Leans Cameron.
State House 20
The Matchup: Vicki Berger (R), Connie Garcia (D).
Analysis: Vicki is one of those Rs that really should be a D. She certainly has the edge but this district has enough D's in it to swing if things go right.
Early Line: Leans Berger.
State House 21
The Matchup: Billy Dalto (R), Brian Clem (D).
Analysis: This is about the best pickup opportunity to Ds have anywhere in the state with a liberal district and a great candidate. Billy Dalto also has ethical issues as well.
Early Line: Tossup.
State House 22
The Matchup: Betty Komp (D), Carol Wieneke (R).
Analysis: Komp is well known and liked in this district but it is Woodburn so nothing is ever certain.
Early Line: Likely Komp.
State House 23
The Matchup: Brian Boquist (R), Jason Brown (D).
Analysis: Competitive by only the thinnest of margins.
Early Line: Likely Boquist.
State House 24
The Matchup: Donna Nelson (R), Sal Peralta (D).
Analysis: Donna is by far the least intelligent person in the Oregon Legislature and I wish she could be replaced. Sal (one of only two candidates from OR endorsed in Democracy for America's A-list and a frequent DKos blogger under the handle "salvador") has as good a chance as any in this district. Interesting note, Donna has not raised any $ as of yet, which may be a factor.
Early Line: Leans Nelson.
State House 25
The Matchup: Kim Thatcher (R), Charles Lee (D)
Analysis: Thatcher, once appearing safe, may well be in serious trouble.
Early Line: Tossup.
State House 27
The Matchup: Tobias Read or Mike Bohan (D, pending primary results), Dominic Biggi (R).
Analysis: This district is as much an example of how Washington County has changed. From solid R to fairly solid D, either Read or Bohan should be able to take down Biggi.
Early Line: Leans Read/Bohan.
Note: The Primary currently stands with Read leading by 94 votes, Washington and Multnomah County (HD 27 is in both) both have said they have ballots to count. Expect final results early next week if not sooner.
State House 29
The Matchup: Chuck Reiley (D), Terry Rilling (R).
Analysis: This should be a big Republican pickup opportunity but they failed to get the right candidate.
Early Line: Leans Reiley.
State House 30
The Matchup: Everett Curry (R), David Edwards (D)
Analysis: The only R open seat is going to be a war but one that given the recent ineptiude of the Washington County R's you have to think Edwards has a very good chance to win.
Early Line: Tossup.
State House 32
The Matchup: Deborah Boone (D), Norm Myers (R).
Analysis: I've seen this before, Boone wins again.
Early Line: Leans Boone.
State House 35
The Matchup: Larry Galizio (D), Shelly Parsons (R).
Analysis: Galizio has a very slight edge in this extremely competitive district.
Early Line: Leans Galizio.
State House 37
The Matchup: Scott Brunn (R), Bev Backa (D)
Analysis: This West Linn district is prety safe for the Rs but as with any other Metro area district it is never totally safe. Still Brunn shouldn't have too much trouble here.
Early Line: Likely Brunn
State House 39
The Matchup: Wayne Scott (R), Mike Caudle (D)
Analysis: Two years ago Scott only won here by about 5,000 votes, not an insurmountable margin. With Schrader on the battle at the Senate level, this would be a longshot but it could happen for the Ds.
Early Line: Likely Scott
State House 47
The Matchup: Jeff Merkley (D), Bruce McCain (R)
Analysis: Normally this would be a safe bet for Jeff but I'll list it for now because McCain is a good challenger. Still, Merkley knows how to fight and he should win this one fairly easily.
Early Line: Likely Merkley
State House 48
The Matchup: Mike Schaufler (D), Dave Mowry (R)
Analysis: Rematch from 2 years ago, Schaufler with the slight edge.
Early Line: Leans Schaufler.
State House 49
The Matchup: Karen Minnis (R), Rob Brading (D)
Analysis: This one will be a war for the soul of Oregon politics (well, mostly, Wood Village).
Early Line: Tossup.
State House 50
The Matchup: John Lim (R), Jill Selman-Ringer (D)
Analysis: Lim is a lightweight but he has a slight edge here.
Early Line: Leans Lim.
State House 51
The Matchup: Linda Flores (R), Ryan Olds (D)
Analysis: Flores probably in a walk but Olds is a good candidate.
Early Line: Likely Flores.
State House 52
The Matchup: Patti Smith (R), Suzzanne VanOrman (D)
Analysis: Same as Dist. 51, a longshot but not tottally impossible.
Early Line: Likely Smith.
State House 54
The Matchup: Chuck Burley (R), Phil Philiben (D)
Analysis: This Bend district is really the only district east of the Cascades in which the Democrats are competitive. Two years ago, when this was an open seat, Burley won by about 600 votes. Now he is not facing as strong a candidate but with the recent tidal wave (Bend is the fastest growing city in the state) of mostly liberal Californians into this district, Philiben goes in with a decent chance to pull the upset.
Early Line: Leans Burley.
Comments welcome...