The slate of Feb 3 states looks bleak for Howard Dean. With Kerry strong in MO, Edwards in SC and Clark in OK, Dean only has a fighting chance to be competitive in AZ and NM, maybe DE and ND. But the odds are stacked in favor of him going 0-for-7 on Tuesday. This certainly is not what we envisioned three weeks ago.
And so, when the final results have been tallied in Arizona, with nary a notch on his belt, Howard Dean will stand up before a live national audience in Burlington or Seattle or Detroit or wherever he might be, and claim a victory that even the media must recognize as real.
While Dean may not win a single state on Feb 3, he stands a fairly decent chance to win more delegates on that date than any other candidate.
Ignoring for the time being superdelegates, there are 269 delegates at stake on Tuesday: 55 in AZ; 26 in NM; 40 in OK; 15 in DE; 45 in SC; 15 in ND; 74 in MO. None of those states has a winner-take all distribution of delegates and each of those has a 15% viability minimum to be awarded any at all.
It's true Dean is not running ads for Feb 3, but he has a core following at around 20-25% in many states who will not abandon him now, some states more, some states less. Meanwhile, Kerry and Clark have conceded SC to Edwards, where Sharpton is also strong.
Let's begin in Arizona. Recent polls show Dean hanging in there. Let's say the results end up like this: Clark 36-Dean 27-Kerry 21-Edwards 12-Lieberman 5. That's 24 delegates for Clark, 18 for Dean, 13 for Kerry and none for anyone else. Let's do all the Feb 3. states:
Vote totals:
AZ NM OK SC ND DE MO
Clark 36 35 35 12 17 10 18
Dean 27 30 15 18 28 30 21
Kerry 20 20 20 10 40 40 35
Edwards 12 10 25 40 7 10 16
Lieberman 5 5 5 5 8 10 8
Sharpton 0 0 0 15 0 0 2
Delegate allocation:
AZ NM OK SC ND DE MO
Clark 23 10 15 0 3 0 15
Dean 18 9 6 11 5 6 17
Kerry 13 6 8 0 6 9 29
Edwards 0 0 11 25 0 0 13
Lieberman 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sharpton 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
Which would mean, on the day, Dean wins 72 delegates, Kerry 71, Clark 66, Edwards 49 and Sharpton 9.
One may say that the race is not about delegate totals right now, but is about wins and the momentum it generates. If Dean becomes not only the only candidate to win delegates in each state, but also wins the most delegates in the process, I cannot imagine the media would not notice and that Dean would not be perceived as some sort of victor.
This outcome is not that farfetched. Perhaps it is relying too much on Clark's strength in the southwest at the expense of Kerry, but Dean could claim somewhat of a coup if it comes to pass.