Non-Senate polls, polls, polls

CALIFORNIA (50th CD)

SurveyUSA. 11/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4.2% (10/13-15 results)

Bilbray (R) 55 (49)
Busby (D) 41 (46)

COLORADO (5th CD, open)

SurveyUSA. 11/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (10/16-18 results)

Lamborn (R) 51 (51)
Fawcett (D) 42 (38)

Given the on-the-ground reports I'm getting, I'm far more optimistic about this race than these numbers would indicate. It's a long-shot, but I'd put money on this race ending tighter than this.

FLORIDA (9th, 22nd CD)

9th

SurveyUSA. 11/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4.2% (10/16-18 results)

Bilirakis (R) 53 (57)
Busansky (D) 41 (36)

This race has been on the list of races that could fall to us if we get a big Dem wave. Still too much of a longshot.

22nd

Zogby for Miami Herald. 10/31-11/2. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Shaw (R) 40
Klein (D) 49

Research 2000, on 10/16-19 gave Shaw the edge 48-43. Split the difference and call it a tie? Or is a last-minute wave building for Klein? So many questions!

KANSAS (Gov, AG)

SurveyUSA. 11/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4.4% (10/13-15 results)

Governor

Sebelius (D) 57 (55)
Barnett (R) 40 (42)

Attorney General

Kline (R) 43 (43)
Morrison (D) 56 (56)

There are few downballot races I'm watching this Tuesday, and the Kansas AG race is one of them. Kline is crazy right, supposedly perfect for a Red plains state like Kansas. Yet here he is slated to go down and go down hard. Kansas isn't looking so Red anymore, with the civil war in its state GOP taking a toll. Moderate Republicans are becoming conservative Democrats, and the state is inching toward (locally) purple status.

Morrison gets 30 percent of Republican voters, and is winning independents 2-1.

MINNESOTA (6th CD, open)

SurveyUSA. 11/4. Likely voters. MoE 4.2% (10/22-24 results)

Bachmann (R) 49 (49)
Wetterling (D) 42 (43)

NEW MEXICO (1st CD)

Research and Polling for the Albuquerque Journal. 11/1-2. Likely voters. MoE 4.4% (10/17 results)

Wilson (R) 45 (42)
Madrid (D) 49 (45)

NEW YORK (20th, 26th CDs)

20th

Sienna College (PDF). 11/1-2. Likely voters. MoE 3.9% (10/16-17 results)

Sweeney (R) 43 (53)
Gillibrand (D) 46 (39)

26th

SurveyUSA. 11/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4.6% (10/23-25 results)

Reynolds (R) 50 (50)
Davis (D) 46 (45)

If we had a better candidate (Davis refuses to campaign) we might have put this one away on the wake of the Foley scandal. As it is, I'm still seeing it fall in a Blue wave in NY state this year.

NORTH CAROLINA (11th CD)

OnPoint (PDF). 11/1. Likely voters. MoE 3.3% (10/17 results)

Taylor (R) 43 (43)
Shuler (D) 52 (51)