Youth vote in the Mountain West

Earlier today I wrote about the great recent news on youth voting, anchored by these observations. The first by Publius:

Speaking as a political scientist.... Generally speaking, the "you get more conservative as you get older" myth really is a myth. People's ideological/partisan identification don't change much after the age of 30. If someone votes for the same party three times in a row, they're hooked for life. It takes some earth-shattering to change after that.

People don't get more conservative as they get older, but they do get more rigid. What happens is that ideology acts as an informational screen - people shield out stuff that is inconsistent with their predispositions (which is why FOX News works). So as we get older, our attitudes get reinforced.

And:

In 1984 three exit polls pegged Ronald Reagan's share of the ballots cast by Americans under 30 at between 57 and 60 percent. Reagan-style conservatism seemed fresh, optimistic and innovative. In 2006 voters under 30 gave 60 percent of their votes to Democratic House candidates, according to the shared media exit poll. Conservatism now looks old, tired and ineffectual.

Democrats are solidifying their hold on the Northeast and should make similar gains in the Midwest in coming years. After that, I believe strongly that the Mountain West is the next source of gains for the party. Voting patterns among youth in those states bears out my optimism.

Montana: Young voters turned out in force, comprising 17 percent of the electorate—compared to just 13 percent nationwide—and broke for Senator-elect Jon Tester by 12 percent. In 2004, they made up more than one-fifth of the electorate and supported Brian Schweitzer by 11 percent.

Colorado: Colorado youth went for Kerry over Bush 51 to 47 percent in 2004. Young voters were also the best age group for Senator Ken Salazar, who first won election to the U.S. Senate in 2004. Exit polls are not available for 2006, but we can only guess that Governor-elect Bill Ritter and expanded Democratic majorities in the statehouse benefited from a growing youth vote.

Wyoming: Wyoming is blood red, but if young voters had their way, Democrat Gary Trauner would be representing the state in the U.S. Congress. Young voters went for Trauner by an astounding 16 percent.

Arizona: While losing the election by 15 percent, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jim Pederson won young voters by 15 percent—outperforming his overall results by 30 points among young voters.

New Mexico: Governor Bill Richardson saw his strongest re-elect margins come from young voters.

Idaho: No exit polls in 2006, but all indications are that the state’s surprisingly strong Democratic showing in a governor’s race and U.S. House race—Idaho is even more Republican than Wyoming—came again from a groundswell of youth support.

A generation ago, the sagebrush rebellion tore across the Rocky Mountain West, leaving the Democratic Party in the region dying and gasping for breath. As recently as six years ago, Democrats held none of the region’s governorships. Now, in a solid chain reaching from Mexico to Canada, every Rocky Mountain state has at least one senior official—a governor or senator—from the Democratic Party (the exceptions in the region being Idaho and Utah).

This ascendance has tracked almost identically with the rise of the Millennial Generation as voting age citizens. And it’s not surprising because on issue after issue, young Westerners appear to be more reliably progressive than their predecessors.

The authors of this report even have suggestions about how to continue appealing to millennials:

Warm Up the Crowd by Talking Climate Change and Energy: Westerners who see raging forest fires every summer and shorter skiing seasons every winter are attuned to the issue of climate change. Even Republicans in the region have acknowledged the threat of global warming. Want to win the support and votes of young Westerners? Take on the biggest environmental issue of the 21st century and propose a visionary energy policy to tackle it.

Maintain a Little Libertarian Sensibility: It’s not surprising that the first state in the union to reject a same-sex marriage ban would be a Western state. The live-and-let-live impulse in the West is long held and deeply felt. Medicinal marijuana has also polled extremely well in this “red” territory.

Not Just Jobs, Ones That Pay Well: Economic populism has delivered major benefits for Western candidates—hardly shocking given the flyaway success of minimum wage initiatives in these states.