I hate the "horse race" mentality of the media. They spend hours analyzing every little move and counter-move while ignoring the slower moving trends that really decide the election. There was a lot of focus two weeks ago on how Kerry was having a "bad week" (
TPM and
Salon.com, for example). What was Kerry having a bad week on? For not having a snappy enough quote on one Dubya attack and for a (misquoted) statement about support from foreign leaders. Let's review the top issues for voters according to a
recent poll:
#1 The economy and jobs (36% felt this was the most important issue)
#2 Terrorism (17%)
#3 Iraq (10%)
#4 Education (8%)
#5 Social Security (7%)
#6 Prescription drugs and Medicare (7%)
#7 Health care (6%)
Kerry's problems had nothing to do with those issues. Kerry had a bad week because there was a gap in the news cycle and the same time the Republicans launched their negative attacks. Their negative attacks got lots of coverage. But none of it was on critical issues and when the next big story came along, all of it got swept away. It may have made a little impression, but I don't much.
However, Dubya has nothing but problems on all of the key issues. And all of the trends on those issues are in the wrong direction for him. Practically every breaking major news story throws Dubya back on the defensive.
Let's take the economy for instance. What has been driving the little improvement in the economy the last year and a half has been consumer spending fed by the refinancing boom. The refinancing boom is over, so I don't see much reason for there to be any change in the job numbers for the economy. So, around the 6th of every month between now and November, there will probably be headlines about how few jobs were produced, how the few jobs were well short of Dubya's predictions. All Dubya and his flunkies will be able to say is that "they are disappointed" with the job numbers, but they things will turn around soon. I don't know what Kerry's plan is, but at least it is no holding steady to something that continues to fail.
On terrorism, I think Dubya and company made a huge mistake in going after Clarke. To digress for a minute, the Right can easily float an attack on a Democrat. Once they decide what attack they are going to make on whom, there are lots of people they can send to lots of media outlets - Rush, Fox, etc. For the Left to make an attack on a Republican, the attack has to be delivered by someone who is a big name on an issue the media is paying attention to. Dubya's National Guard record was ignored until the Democrats had a two Presidential candidates with distinguished military records and even then it took a celebrity bring it up for it to get discussed. Back to the topic - if Dubya and company had downplayed Clarke's comments, they may have been able to get Dubya's pre-9/11 anti-terrorism plans (or lack thereof) uninvestigated. It would have been tough because when the 9/11 report came out, it would get a lot of coverage. But they may have been able to spin that coverage. However, by making Clarke a celebrity, now the media is going to go over Dubya's pre-9/11 record with a fine tooth comb. Also, the media will probably also go over his actions on 9/11 with a critical eye. Now, Dubya will have to spend the next few months defending "new information" that the media just never bothered researching before.
I see huge problems in Iraq from July on. The only thing that is none about the Iraqi government is that it is taking over the country June 30th. After all of the lies about the WMD's, the only justification that Dubya can give for all of the money and lives lost on Iraq is that it is a better place with Saddam Hussein. IMHO, after June 30 the Kurds are going to want to split away and the Shiites are going to try to establish a Iranian-style theocracy. I haven't seen any signs of cooperation between the different factions in Iraq and right now, US money and military is the only thing keep the government together. When Iraq falls to pieces, people are going to wonder what we spent all that money and lives for.
On education, the No Child Left Behind Act continues to get hammered. As people begin to see its effects up close, they realize that it was a bad bill. Let's face it - when you introduce high-stakes testing, all teaching becomes teach to the test. As states and parents complained, Dubya and his flunkies have caved in. When the new school year starts in the fall, there will be lots more stories about the negative effects of the NCLBA. Kerry should have an easy time coming up with an education plan that appeals more to the voters.
On Social Security, the big problem is the deficit. I think most people understand that we can't have Dubya's permanent tax cuts and full fund Social Security. 5 years ago, Dubya's solution to the problems with Social Security was to privatize it. That is looking less appealing now that the stock market boom is over and there is no surplus to pay for the transistion cost. Also, I am looking forward to when the media notices that despite talking about privatizing Social Security for almost 5 years, Dubya still doesn't have a plan for doing so.
On Medicare, the administration put together a bad bill but made it effective after the election and hoped that no one would notice how little benefit it provided. Well, seniors don't understand the bill and many of them have a negative attitude towards it. As time goes on, there will probably be revelations about how little benefit the bill provides.
So, on the top 6 issues, all I see is things getting worse for Dubya. So what Dubya is going to do is to try to make this a campaign on personalities and then paint Kerry as being an inferior person. That worked with Gore, but that was when Gore and Dubya were both running on positive records and the Dubya was able to use an incompetent media to hide the significant differences in their positions. Many people thought they both candidates were going to cut taxes and increases services, so why not pick the most likeable guy? There is no way Dubya can run as a moderate this time, so people will realize they have a stark contrast in choices.
Yes, I think Dubya's initial attacks bloodied Kerry some, but I think the attacks happening when it did was a good thing. It revealed two huge weaknesses in the Kerry campaign - the lack of a sound bite length response to a Republican attack and the inability to get people in multiple media channels to counter punch when the Republicans punch. Now that the focus is on Clarke and the run up to 9/11, Kerry has the time to upgrade his war room. Kos recently wrote that Kerry needs a shadow cabinet "with capable and high profile men and women that will help carry the battle to their Bush Administration counterparts." Kerry hopefully know realizes that and has the time to do so. Also, this hopefully taught Kerry that he needs to get the Democratic congressional leadership lined up so that they too will counter punch for his campaign.
Another advantage to having the attacks happen when they did is that though the media is pretty dumb and learns slowly, it does learn. The first attacks had a number of major distortions which the media repeated uncritically. Now, the media is going to have digested that a lot of what Dubya is going to attack with is made up. That should effect the free media coverage of Dubya's ads.
Kerry may have had a few stumbles and got put on the defensive for a week, but every other week from now until the election, Dubya is going to put on the defensive on issues people care about not because of some phony smear job or some attack ads, but because of the latest news. Kerry may have had a bad week, but Dubya is going to have a bad 7 months.