I'm considering hosting/publicizing an online auction fundraiser for Francine Busby and wanted everyone's opinions and advice on the matter.
I was looking around my house and have a bunch of stuff that I either no longer use, never used, etc. which could be sold at auction to get some funds for the Busby campaign. I was also thinking that if I organized it, we could get a bunch of other interested Kossacks to put similar items up for auction and we could each individually donate the proceeds to the Busby campaign. What do people think, generally? Is it worth the effort or should we just try to encourage people to donate from their bank accounts? Lawyers: is this a legal way to raise funds for a campaign?
My list of items (made casually this morning...I'm sure I'll find a bunch more stuff after a closer look around), with a guess at their potential auction value:
A never before used cappacino maker ($20-$30)
A neon bar size Budweiser sign ($25-$100)
A used coffee maker ($4-$10)
Numerous books ($1 each)
Set of poker chips ($5)
Yahtzee ($2)
Simpsons Trivia Game, 2 ($2-$5 each)
New retro style telephone ($10)
Original Nintendo Entertainment System with 15 old school games ($50 for the set)
Collectible "Kenya" African doll (don't ask--$5)
Tons of decent, used men's clothing ($1-2 each)
Shelving paper, 2 rolls ($1-2 each)
Old, non-functional Imac ($50)
Fortune telling balls from Sharper Image, 2 ($10 each)
Some substantive information about the election:
Busby's website:
http://www.busbyforcongress.org
The election to replace Duke Cunningham is now just 20-something days away--April 11, 2006--and our candidate, Francine Busby (D) needs all the help our community can muster.
CA-50 will be trumpeted as the test case for the effect of the GOP's corruption scandals on the 2006 House and Senate races. No other district (except for Delay's in Texas and the entire state of Montana, perhaps) has a more direct connection to the Republican corruption embroiling Washington D.C. than this slightly Republican leaning district in beautiful Northern San Diego County. If we cannot get a win here, where Kerry lost to Bush 45-55, the corruption scandal will be seen as a very weak issue to run a campaign on, unless the electorate in other districts is split much more closely along party lines.
My three main reasons why Busby will win:
1. CA-50's Congressional seat has been in the hands of a corrupt Republican for the past 16 years. But Duke wasn't just any corrupt Republican. Duke is the only GOP member who has publicly admitted his criminal conduct and is facing a serious sentence of up to ten years in federal prison. The book on Duke is closed--the only matter still pending is how long he'll be sitting in his cell. Recent polls taken in CA-50 indicate that about 90% of the electorate there disapproves of Duke. In a district with slightly higher Republican registration than Democratic, this is surely a great sign. The voters will be eager to move away from Duke and the GOP's more general corruption scandals (Abramoff, etc.) will surely affect even ethical Republican candidates vying for this seat. The one and only candidate in this election who will not be linkable to Duke's and the GOP's unbelievable stench of corruption is Busby.
2. Busby is the only serious, funded Democrat on the April 11 ballot. Meanwhile, there are 8-10 Republican opponents on the ticket, all hoping that they will move onto the primary. Several of the Republicans are very well funded and it is inconceivable that any one of the many republicans would be able to capture the necessary 50%+1 of the vote, needed to avoid a primary. We can rest completely assured that the only candidate who can possibly win 50%+1 on April 11 is Busby, due to the huge number of serious Republican opponenents (splitting the conservative vote) and the fact that Busby is the only viable Democratic candidate.
3. If Busby does not capture 50%+1 of the vote on April 11, the run-off will be held as a part of the general California Primary. Currently, there will be no serious primary for the Republicans running for Governor of CA or for the Senate seat in 2006. Meanwhile, there is going to be a hot primary to select the Democratic opponent to face off with Governor Schwarzenegger in the fall. That means that Republican turn-out should be quite low while Democratic voters will be very interested in showing up at the polls in June. This can only help Busby as Republican turnout in the district will be depressed and Democratic turnout should be higher than usual.
Polls, from Juls' and my past diaries:
April 11th Race:
Busby 33.5%
Bilbray 14.8%
Roach 7.9%
Kaloogian 7.1%
Morrow 4.7%
Uke 3.6%
Leaning:
Busby 5.3%
Bilbray 4.3%
Roach 4.3%
Kaloogian 2.7%
Morrow 2.1%
Uke 1.1%
Run-off (Part of general primaries on June 6th)
Bilbray 40.9% Busby 38.2%
Roach 35.8% Busby 35.2%
Busby 43.8% Kaloogian 32%
Busby 40.7% Morrow 35.5%
The CNN/Gallup poll showed that 53% of Americans currently plan to vote for Democratic candidates in the 2006 midterm congressional elections, compared to 38% who plan to vote for Republican candidates. Looking at the presidential results from 2004, it seems that about 1/4 of Bush supporters will abandon the GOP during the midterms, excellent news for all of our candidates!
Additionally, internal Busby polling shows that 43% of voters in the district prefer election a generic Democrat in this race to about 34% who prefer a generic Republican, with the rest undecided. Even better news is that this poll was taken way back in January, and Bush's popularity has been on the slide since then--UAE ports deal anyone?!