All the stories leaking out of the Lieberman campaign seem too good to be true for Ned Lamont supporters.
Joe can't get anyone to work for his campaign. Joe's abandoning his GOTV effort to spend the money on TV ads. Joe's campaign teams basically admits defeat.
Isn't it interesting that the bulk of these stories all came out AFTER the Quinnipiac poll showing Joe down to Lamont by double digits?
I submit to you that there is a method to Joe's madness here.
Joe's campaign team probably does think it can't win the primary. BUT, at this point they are looking to the general election, and how best to position Joe for that race as an independent.
Thus, if Lieberman were to BEAT EXPECTATIONS and only lose the primary race by single digits, Joe could go into the general election with "Joementum."
Ned Lamont MUST score a knockout blow in the primary, and beat Lieberman deciseively. Otherwise, Lieberman can claim his own "comeback kid" moment and declare that he can win the general election as an independent. It will also make it harder for eletced Democratic officials who have thus far pledged support for Lieberman to automatically abandon him if he loses, by say, 5 points instead of 15 points.
So, Joe is playing Rope-a-dope here.
His goal is twofold:
1. Give the Lamont campaign and Lamont supporters the sense that this race is "over," and therefore there's no reason to go vote for Ned. Your guy has it won. (wink).
2. Secretly do the hardcore GOTV he always planned to do anyway, to get as many of his supporters out to the polls.
He has to do both of these things at the same time, or he risks disheartening his OWN supporters into not showing up.
It's a risky strategy, but it's the only one he's got at this point.
So what's the message here? If you are a Lamont supporter, act like the race is a dead heat, no matter what rumors you hear coming form Joe's campaign, or what the polls say. Until you cross that finish line, you haven't won a damn thing.
The key, as I said, is to blow Joe out by as many votes as possible, and then call on all elected Democrats to unify behind Ned Lamont for the general election. The bigger Ned's margin is, the harder it will be for Joe to run as an independant.
UPDATE: OK, I'm not sure how this fits into my theory.
U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman said Thursday that he hopes a new poll showing his primary challenger with a double-digit lead will "shake up" his supporters and help him eke out a victory.
[...]
Millionaire businessman Ned Lamont, a political novice, was supported by 54 percent of likely Democratic voters in the Quinnipiac University poll, compared to Lieberman's 41 percent. The sampling error margin was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
"The fact is I'm about a lot more than one issue and the future of the people of Connecticut is about a lot more than one issue," Lieberman said during a campaign stop in West Hartford. "You always hope that a poll like this will shake up my supporters to come out and vote."
So I'm adding a poll below:
FINAL UPDATE: Ummm...it appears I may be right afer all.