Here is my analysis of the house races we need to win this fall. Details our best pickup chances this fall. It seems that our only seats that are very vulnerable are Bean's, Melancon, Marshall, Spratt's, Boswell and Strickland. The following are all Tier 1 races that we ought to pick up this november, or will be very competitive.
1. AZ-08
With the Kolbe retirement, Gabrielle Giffords and Patty Weiss are in an excellent position to take this seat. If former Assemblyman Randy Graf, a hard-right conservative, takes the normination, this ought to be a sure win. However, if one of the two moderates running can manage to get the nomination, this one will be hard faught to the end
2. C0-07
Beauprez is running for governor, and his hand picked succesor is Rick O'Donnell. He ought to be on the stump towards the end of the race, trying to whip up support for O'donnell. However, Ed Perlmutter is an excellent candidate who fits this lean-kerry district well.
3. CT - 02
2002 opponent Joe Courtney is in for a rematch. Rob Simmons has toed the moderate line often, yet is the most conservative of the 3 Republican CT members of the house. He won this district in 2000 over Sam Gedjenson in a fluke, and Courtney will take him out this november. However, the Rell blowout will hurt us here, and in CT - 05 and CT - 04
4. IN- 09
Former Rep. Baron Hill is back for a rematch with trucking exec and now Rep. Mike Sodorel. Without Bush's coattails, Baron may be able to pull off a victory. However, Lugar's lack of an opponent may hurt us in this race.
5. IA- 01
Nussle is running for governor, and this district ought to revert back to the democrat, Bruce Braley. Hopefully, we will see a lot of split governor/congressional tickets in this district, with people not voting for Nussle's succesor.
6. IN - 08
John Hostetler has never gotten above 55% in any re-election bid in this high 50's Bush district. The bloody eight will be tight again this year, with Sheriff Brad Ellsworth running, Hostetlers strongest opponent to date. He looked good in the tornedo storm earlier this year, so this will be a race that is currently a toss up.
7. NM - 01
Heather Wilson has always been on the edge of defeat in this 50-50 district. She faces an extremely strong contender in AG Patricia Madrid. A victory for Madrid would help us in 2008 when Domenici retires, as Wilson would be his successor with a good showing.
8. PA - 06
Lois Murphy is running again against Jim Gerlach, but one must wonder if the coattails of John Kerry in this suburban, soccer mom area, could possibly be any higher. However, it was a squeaker last time, and the added attention of the DCCC could bring this one into the bag.
The next due are only due to scandal
9. OH - 18
Bob Ney is in huge trouble, but solely because of his ethical lapses. Normally, there is no way this district would be in play like it is now. However, Democrats Zack Space or Joe Sultzer look primed to take this seat due to scandal. Sultzer was a class - a recruit, however a recent article, i dont recall where, cast some doubt on his own ethics. However, he seems to fit the district from an ideological standpoint than Space, the Dover Law Director.
10. TX 28
We will see tonight if Tom Campbell can force a primary run-off with Delay. If he doesn't, our chances in this district remain high, with former Rep. Nick Lampson challenging the former House Majority Leader.
11. FL - 22
Clay Shaw is being horrible outraised by State Sen Minority Leader Ron Klein in this toss up district. Shaw only barely survived in 2002, and look for this race to come down to the wire.
12. KY - 04
Ken Lucas is back for a comeback, but dont overestimate the ease of this race. This is very conservative territory, and Lucas only barely dispatched Davis in 2002. However, at this moment i would put my money on Lucas for a succesful comeback.
13. NC - 11
Charles Taylor is in some ethical problems, and the celebrity status of Heath Shuler as a succesful college QB at Tennessee has allowed him a huge COH advantage versus Taylor. This race in the foothills of NC will be tight.
14. CT - 04
Diane Farrell is back for a rematch, and like the other CT districts, the Rell blowout over her dem opponent may be hard to overcome. However, Farrell came mighty close last time around, and this blue district is vulnerable for a takeover.
15. CT - 05
State Senator Murphy now has the primary field to himself, and looks to take out Rep. Nancy Johnson in the fall. While getting less focus that the other CT races, this may be the one that is easiest to take, as our candidate in this race seems to have more experience than the others.
16. MN - 06
El Tinkleberg is looking to take this open seat, being vacated by Mark Kennedy. While Wetterling did run a strong race in 2004 in this district, I would think that she has maxed out in terms of her support. Tinkleberg is a stronger candidate, and I think he can take this district
17. WI - 08
Dr. Steve Kagan has pumped over 1 m dollars into this race, which also has Nancy Nuessenbaum running. The GOP opponnent will be the Speaker(?) of the WI House, Bard. This is a lean R district, but another one we can take.
And now the Tier 2 Races
18. IN - 02
Same problems with turnout here with Lugar at the top of the ticket in Chris Chocola's district. Joe Donnelly is the nominee for us, and this will be a rematch. A possible pickup.
19. CA - 50
The special election is coming up. This is a solid R district, and Busby may be too liberal for the district. However, a shattered R primary field and the bad taste of Duke in the residents' mouth may bring her to victory
20. WA - 08
Dave Reichert won this district in a squeaker last time around, and Darcy Burner is an okay candidate. A possible pickup
21. PA - 08
Patrick Murphy has been getting a lot of free pub lately, and while this is harder than PA - 06, it remains a solid pickup op.
22. KY - 02
Conservative Dem Mike Weaver is running versus Ron Lewis, and will give him the fight of his political life.
23. OH - 01
Jim Cranley is a very strong candidate, has done well fundraising and is looking towards Chabot in November. As a political novice, he got 46% in 2002. Since he was elected to the Cincy City council and looks to be a strong pickup opp this fall.
24. VA - 02
Thelma Drake is neither here nor there, not terribly popular or unpopular. However, Phil Kellam is a very strong candidate and could take this district into a tossup.
25. IL -06
I am not as optimistic about this district as many others are. Cegelis has the same problem here that Wetterling has in Minnesota. Duckworth is definately the stronger candidate, however in this R district I am pessimistic about State Sen. Peter Roskams chances of losing this open seat, vacated by Henry Hyde.
26. CA - 11
Richard Pombo is very conservative for this district, and Steve Filson is a solid recruit. This one will be competitive.
Third Tier. These races lean R at the moment, but could become toss ups later
27. PA - 07
Lentz left the primary fight to run for the State House, leaving Vice Admiral Sestak as the only challenger to Curt Weldon. This is a strong D district, but Weldon has held it for a while. However, a strong race by Sestak could bring this into our column.
28. CO - 04
Musgrave is vulnerable, and Angie Paccionne is challenging. This could get competitive
29. KY - 03
Northup is in a democratic district, but Andrew Horne is just an okay candidate. Emmanuel failed to get a big name candidate into this race
30. NH - 02
Bass is popular here, but Paul Hodes may be able to make a race of it.
31. NY - 29
Frequent poster Eric Massa, if he gets his fundraising up, could give Kuhl a run for his money
32. NC - 08
Tim Dunn has not fundraised well, and Robin Hayes is vulnerable for his CAFTA flip-flop in this textile territory
33. OH - 15
Mary Jo Kilroy will be defiant opposition for Pryce, but I dont know if its enough to take down the veteran congresswoman. Definate possibility though for a toss up later in the year.
I didnt detail the long shots, only really the seats that in a Dem year have the realistic possibility of switching sides. So in a total tital wave, we would gain all these seats, yet that is unlikely.
On a side note, I heard we got a prime challenger to Jeb Bradley in NH - 01 that would make it a first tier race. I think the speaker of the NH House, but i couldnt find the article.