Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, a site normally more favorable to Republicans than it is to Democrats, reported last week that Bush is in fairly major trouble with his re-election bid:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/updates_04-03-17.htm
Among Sabato's predictions:
--Nader will not be a major factor in the general election, unless he gets the Green Party nomination again.
--The Midwest will be key in this year's election.
--Bush does not have a very large margin of error. If he looses Ohio, Florida, or Missouri, he's toast.
Most interesting of all, Sabato argues that Kerry stands to beneift more from media coverage than Bush, stating that "Kerry is not personally liked by the media elites, but he has the 'right' positions on the issues and his upset of President Bush will provide the kind of 'big story' that makes careers and attracts readers and viewers in droves."
Sabato's assessment of Kerry's negatives seem consistent with what we've already heard in the national media. But Sabato does make the rather frightening prediction that it could be possible for Bush to lose the popular vote again and still win in the electoral college.
Any thoughts?