So...everyone knows, and everyone contributes to, the top-tier races. As well they should: Democrats will not take back the House without them. If you have some dollars to throw the way of Ron Klein, Brad Ellsworth, Heath Shuler, Bruce Braley, et al., then dammit, you should.
But that is not what I want to talk about today. I want the longshots: the well, but not too well, funded challengers in districts that lurk just beyond the radar screen. I want to know who this community thinks is the second-or-third tier race that could be the upset we will all be gawking at in November.
A CAVEAT--This is NOT...I repeat NOT...an invitation for the friend, family member, volunteer, or staffer of a campaign to use this diary to pimp their campaign. The purpose of this exercise is to identify viable races below the radar that could turn blue given ample attention. It is not for you to flog your race. If you want to do that, you can write a diary a day about your campaign.
My three picks below the fold.
Ironically, two of my three choices are races where the campaigns DO have a presence on DKos, so I suppose I am just saving them the trouble :).
(1) Bill Winter (Colorado 06)--If you saw his VERY impressive diary earlier today, you get that this is a candidate that "gets it." He raised a pretty impressive $176K for the second quarter, but he still trails incumbent Tom Tancredo in cash-on-hand by more than a three-to-one margin. Tancredo has been pressed before (He won 54-42 a few years back). This is not an unwinnable district.
(2) Larry Grant (Idaho 01)--A very contentious Republican primary in the 1st has left Democrat Larry Grant with two key advantages: 1) The most polarizing Republican won the primary and 2) Their cash-on-hand figures were only $18K apart. This is starting to get some press as a sleeper race. A monster third quarter of fundraising could drive that story.
(3) Dan Seals (Illinois 10)--The most well-funded of my three sleeper races, this is a purple-to-blue district that has not been contested since 2000 because of the perceived invulnerability of incumbent Mark Kirk. Kirk, who is considered a John Porter moderate, may have a conservative Congress and President as an albatross around his campaign neck. But he will be extraordinarily well-funded ($1.86 million in the bank as of June 30). Seals has some buzz, and this is a district that Kirk won with only 51% back in 2000.
OK...those are my three...what are yours?