The previous thread on the Mexican Presidential election is becoming a little long, so here is another one to take its place.
If I were making predictions, I would say we were going to see a "victory" by Calderon by a very small margin. Of course, that only means a massive vote-by-vote recount, as well as investigations into potentially massive fraud as we deal with allegations of entire ballot boxes being discarded in the trash, of Calderon manipulating and purging voter rolls, and of huge numbers of Lopez Obrador districts voting more for Senate races than for the President, with--surprise, surprise--the opposite being true in Calderon districts.
With 93.77% of precincts counted, the difference is 0.77. Calderon would need to gain .12359 points of differential for every 1% of precincts cast.
Check for updates at El Norte or at El Universal.
Updates to follow throughout the evening.
Update: 93.88% with .75 differential. He needs a .1225 rate of change per percentage point now, which is a net gain over the previous update--and bad news for us.
Update #2: 93.99% with .75 differential. A .124 rate of change now needed by Calderon, which means that he just lost ground. Good for us.
Update #3: 94.09% with .73 differential. Slightly bad news, but not too bad: it's now a .1235 rate of change needed.
Update #4: 94.22% with .71 differential. Another piece of bad news, as the rate of change needed slips again to .1228. But, in the bigger picture, he lost ground he needed to be making up since 93.88.
Update #5: 94.32% with .69 differential. This is going to be one heck of a nailbiter. The rate of change needed for a Calderon victory has now slipped further in the favor of the black hats to .12148 per 1%.
Update #6: 94.44% with .67 differential. Not looking good, as we are losing too much ground too quickly. Then again, it has swayed back and forth all night. Only one thing is certain: this won't be over tonight by a long shot; whoever ends up a few votes behind will demand a full recount. The differential necessary now stands at .1205/1%.
Update #7: the bad news continues. 94.53% with a .65 differential. Calderon is in great shape if this keeps up, much to the detriment of the Mexican people. Needed differential has slipped below .12 to .1188. If the trend seen in the last percentage point holds up, Calderon will win with approximately a .1% differential.
Update #8: a small respite. 94.61% with a .64 differential. Needed rate of change per 1% remains at .1188.
Update #9: 94.69% with a .62 differential. News getting worse all the time, as needed rate of change slips again to .1167--and Calderon is more than making that up.
Update #10: 94.92% with a .57 differential. Continually worse news, as Calderon continues to beat what he needs. Needed differential/1% slips to .1122. Looks like another conservative "victory" that will be challenged in the courts.
Update #11: 94.98% with a .56 differential. Bad news again, as the rate of change needed per 1 percent slips again to .11155. Calderon is catching up very quickly now.
Update #12: 95.17% with a .53 differential. Calderon does more than close the gap again. .10973 is what he needs to make up per 1% of votes cast--and he's far exceeding that. Calderon is headed to a nominal win unless something changes drastically.
Update #13: 95.27 with a .52 differential. Apparently, however, a couple of the most heavily Calderon districts have finished counting. We'll see if the advance slows any. Interestingly, this latest update was a Lopez Obrador "hold", as the rate of change/1% necessary climbs up to .10993.
Update #14: 95.40 with a .51 differential. This would seem to indicate that Calderon's advance is slowing; the rate of change per 1% he needs now has jumped to .11087. In other words, he is now not gaining as much ground as he needs to be.
Update #15: terrible news. At 95.48, the differential has dropped two points to .49. Down to .1084.
Update #16: 95.72, with a .44 differential. .10283.
Update #17: 96.63, with a .25 differential. However, the Lopez Obrador stronghold of Coyocan has suspended its count until morning. We will not have a winner tonight.
Update #18: 96.79, and the differential shrinks to .22. At this rate, of course, Calderon will stride ahead. But will it continue at this rate? Many PRD precincts still remain uncounted--and then there are the multiple fraud allegations...
Update #19: 96.85, and .21 differential. Same Calderon creep as before, without abatement.