2004 Congressional Races Preview
Part Two, High Plains and Midwest
This is the second in a series of posts analyzing the congressional races we will see shape up over the next ten months. Candidate filings are just starting, so many things can still change.
The previous post in this series on my weblog covered the West and the West Coast. There are more comments on my Daily Kos diary page with the same report.
When I reviewed the West, I found a lot more vulnerable Republican seats than Democratic seats, but here I find them balanced even though there was a 7-point national Republican swing in the closing days of the 2002 campaign. The bad bounce from the Wellstone funeral didn't create a lot of opportunities here.
The partisan balance in the House is 229R-205D with one vacant seat (SD-AL). Here Hall (R-TX4) is counted with the R's and Sanders (Socialist-VT-AL) with the D's. We need thirteen more seats to pick up the House. The Texas redistricting of 2003, just allowed by the federal courts, makes that almost impossible. The best chance for us to win back the House before 2012 is either mid-decade redistricting of our own or a 1964 style Republican breakdown and Democratic landslide. Even those might not do it. Rumors are that Democratic strategists are talking about the 2022 elections, and if we don't meet their nasty redistricting with our own, that might be our best chance.
Kansas - 4 seats
Rep. Dennis Moore (D-KS3) has never won more than 52.4% of the vote in four congressional elections. But he keeps on winning. Moore is the only Democrat in the state delegation and the Legislature tried to squeeze him out in 2002. They stuck him with all of Republican Johnson County and split the college town of Lawrence and the University of Kansas in half along Iowa street. Moore sailed into the Republican headwind of 2002 and survived with 50.2% of the vote and a 3% margin. Moore is a good campaigner in tough territory and newly elected Governor Sebelius (D-KS) will be trying hard to help, but this one is still a toss-up.
The Republican challenger will probably be 2002 nominee Adam Taff.
Toss-up.
Nebraska - 3 seats
Rep. Doug Bereuter (D-NE1) is retiring after thirteen terms. The seat leans Republican, but high plains seats like this one can be competitive when they are open. Our guy is State Senator Matt Connealy. There will probably be a Republican primary and the winner will likely be far to Bereuter's right.
Leans Republican.
South Dakota - 1 seat
Bill Janklow held the at-large South Dakota congressional seat last year when he killed a constituent. This vacant seat will be filled by a special election on June 1st, 2004. Our candidate is Sephanie Herseth. She is the early favorite based on her close run against Janklow in 2002, but Republicans will make a good run once they pick a candidate on January 23rd. South Dakota voted 60% for Bush in 2000.
Leans Democratic.
North Dakota - 1 seat
Rep. Earl Pomeroy (DNL-ND-AL) has held this seat for six terms. He has never beaten his initial showing of 56.8% in 1992, and this is always a very competitive seat. Bush won here by 25% in 2000 and Pomeroy won by only 4% in 2002.
2002 challenger Rick Clayburgh will be running to retain his job as state tax commissioner so we won't know Pomeroy's 2004 challenger until the June 1st Primary.
Leans Democratic.
Minnesota - 8 seats
Rep. John Kline (R-MN2) won a close race against incumbent Democrat Bill Luther (DFL-MN6) who moved with redistricting to be close to his son with Down Syndrome. Burnsville city councilwoman Teresa Daly will be running against him in 2004 and has a chance. Luther was not familiar with the district, had family troubles (he recently lost his wife), and was facing the vehement negative response to the deceitful Wellstone funeral spin Republicans were successfully pushing. Klein still only won 53%.
Leans Republican.
Rep. Mark Kennedy (R-MN6) will face a challenge from Janet Robert again in 2004. She lost by 20% in 2002, but a more credible Democrat could make this a close race.
Leans Republican.
Wisconsin - 8 seats
No competitive races. A bad redistricting seems to have locked in all the incumbents, but there is Russ Feingold's (D-WI) senate race to keep Wisconsinites warm next winter.
Illinois - 19 seats
In Illinois, when there is a divided legislature, redistricting is done by a nine member commission appointed by the two parties' leaders. The identity of the ninth tie-breaking vote is selected by drawing a name from a black top hat once owned by Abraham Lincoln. In 2001, the Sec'y of State Jesse White picked the name of Democrat Michael Bilandic. But that didn't do us any good in the end.
Illinois lost a seat in 1991 and another in 2001. I was sad to lose Rep. Terry Bruce who was a friend and my representative in the 1991 redistricting. But I was shocked to lose Rep. Phelps in the 2001 redistricting. The redistricting commission was supposed to favor Democrats but it worked hard to build a solid 10-9 Republican majority and forced Phelps to run against Rep. Shimkus in a Republican district.
The redistricting did put the Democrats in control of the legislature and Illinois has a Democratic governor. Now is the time to write to your state senators and representatives and governor Blagojevich (D-IL) and ask them to play the Texas game on their congressional map. The current map keeps Chicago districts mostly in Cook County. Spread those districts out and we should find enough new Democrats to take the sting out of Texas.
Several of the current districts might be competitive if they were open seats, but I don't see any retirements coming soon in them. Mark Kirk (R-IL10) and Tim Johnson (R-IL15) are popular young moderates who will hold their seats until they retire, but those seats would be in play without incumbents.
18 term incumbent Rep. Phil Crane (R-IL8) is the only vulnerable incumbent in the Illinois delegation. He won with 57% in 2002, but he is increasingly remote and unresponsive to his district. He is a far-right stalwart in a moderating suburban district. 2002 nominee Melissa Bean will run again in 2004 and maybe she will succeed in establishing herself with voters.
Leans Republican.
Indiana - 9 seats
Chris Chocola (R-IN2) won by only 4% in the strong Republican year of 2002. This district is very competitive and 2002 nominee Jill Long Thompson is talking about a rematch.
Leans Republican.
Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN8) represents the "bloody eighth" district. In redistricting the eighth became even more Democratic and Hostettler won by only 5%. College and professional basketball coach Jon Jennings looks like a fierce challenge and should pick up the seat if he doesn't stumble.
Leans Democratic.
Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN9) will face Mike Sodrel in a rematch of the close 2002 race, won by 5%. The district leans Republican, but Hill has a record of winning here in Republican territory. The new additions with redistricting are areas he should continue to pick up support in. Sodrel appears to have only $71,000 cash on hand as of October.
Leans Democratic.
Rep. Julia Carson (D-IN7) will also face a rematch with Brose MeVey being the nemesis. She won by 9% in 2002 and can be expected to hold on in 2004. McVey raised $3,000 by October.
Leans Democratic.
Ohio - 18 seats
No competitive races. The Republican dominated state redistricted to give themselves a 12-6 advantage locked into safe districts. It's as shameful as the Florida or Texas efforts, but even more boring. Note that this two to one advantage to redistricting with safe districts in a state that runs even in presidential elections should shame our districters in California and Illinois who can't get anywhere near that in states that go solidly Democratic. If we can't play hardball, we have only ourselves to blame.
Note that every incumbent win by at least 28% in 2002 except Strickland, who is safe with 19%. That is just disgusting.
Michigan - 15 seats
Another shameful Republican incumbent-protection districting. Here we find only one district interesting in a state where a Democratic lean produces a 9-6 Republican delegation.
Rep. Nick Smith (R-MI7) is retiring after 6 terms. The district in Republican but has been trending back to the center. This race is very controversial because Smith was offered a bribe on the House floor during the unprecedented three hour vote on the Bush's attack-on-Medicare bill in 2003. The bribers threatened Brad Smith, Nick's son, who is running for the Republican nomination. Al Widner, a local superintendent of schools, is the likely Democratic nominee unless state Sen. Mark Schauer runs.
Leans Republican.
Iowa will be dealt with after the caucuses when candidates will be able to organize. It's too early now.