It appears that the House and Senate will get the opportunity to vote this year on a proposed amendment to the U. S. Constitution which would define marriage as a heterosexual union between one man and one woman. The proposed Federal Marriage Amendment, written by Rep. Musgrave, has the following language:
Marriage in the United States shall consist only of the union of a man and a woman. Neither this Constitution or the constitution of any State, nor state or federal law, shall be construed to require that marital status or the legal incidents thereof be conferred upon unmarried couples or groups.
The language of the amendment seems carefully designed so as to make it seem as if civil unions laws are not harmed, but, as Andrew Sullivan has pointed out numerous times, the language of this Musgrave Amendment precludes the possibility of states enacting civil unions laws; one of the immediate effects of this amendment is that the Vermont civil unions law will be invalidated. If a state makes a law explicitly conferring to same sex couples the legal incidents of marriage, this Amendment would forbid that law from being construed as to require that those legal incidents be conferred. It is my opinion that it was this version of the FMA that Sen. Kerry was referring to when he expressed his opposition to a proposed anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment with language that does not permit civil unions laws.
One of the first steps that must be taken in order for this amendment to be ratified is that 2/3 of both houses of Congress must support it. I am nervous that there may be sufficient support in Congress to send it on to the states for ratification, and would like to have a rough idea on how the roll call stands.
My Senate prediction is below. In my attempted prediction, I have 4 Democrats clearly voting yes (Miller, Baucus, Hollings, Byrd) with 12 others possible (Lincoln, Pryor, Bayh, Breaux, Landrieu, Conrad, Dorgan, Ben Nelson, Daschle, Johnson, Rockefeller). I also have 3 Republicans voting no (Collins, Snowe, Chafee). The final tally is 63-37 in favor, so it fails. Am I too optimistic? Too pessimistic? Do I have the swing votes correct?
How would each Senator vote on the Federal Marriage Amendment (Musgrave version)?
Those whose vote I believe is firm is in CAPS. Otherwise, it is in lower case. A Republican voting no or a Democrat voting yes gets an "XX" mark.
Murkowski, Lisa (R-AK) YES
Stevens, Ted (R-AK YES
Sessions, Jeff (R-AL) YES
Shelby, Richard (R-AL) YES
Lincoln, Blanche (D-AR) yes XX
Pryor, Mark (D-AR) yes XX
Kyl, Jon (R-AZ) YES
McCain, John (R-AZ) YES
Boxer, Barbara (D-CA) NO
Feinstein, Dianne (D-CA) no
Allard, Wayne (R-CO) YES
Campbell, Ben (R-CO) YES
Dodd, Christopher (D-CT) NO
Lieberman, Joseph (D-CT) no
Biden, Joseph (D-DE) no
Carper, Thomas (D-DE) no
Graham, Bob (D-FL) no
Nelson, Bill (D-FL) no
Chambliss, Saxby (R-GA) YES
Miller, Zell (D-GA) YES XX
Akaka, Daniel (D-HI) NO
Inouye, Daniel (D-HI) NO
Grassley, Chuck (R-IA) YES
Harkin, Tom (D-IA) no
Craig, Larry (R-ID) YES
Crapo, Michael (R-ID) YES
Durbin, Richard (D-IL) NO
Fitzgerald, Peter (R-IL) yes
Bayh, Evan (D-IN) yes XX
Lugar, Richard (R-IN) YES
Brownback, Sam (R-KS) YES
Roberts, Pat (R-KS) YES
Bunning, Jim (R-KY) YES
McConnell, Mitch (R-KY) YES
Breaux, John (D-LA) yes XX
Landrieu, Mary (D-LA) yes XX
Kennedy, Edward (D-MA) NO
Kerry, John (D-MA) NO
Mikulski, Barbara (D-MD) NO
Sarbanes, Paul (D-MD) NO
Collins, Susan (R-ME) no XX
Snowe, Olympia (R-ME) no XX
Levin, Carl (D-MI) no
Stabenow, Debbie (D-MI) NO
Coleman, Norm (R-MN) yes
Dayton, Mark (D-MN) no
Bond, Christopher (R-MO) YES
Talent, James (R-MO) YES
Cochran, Thad (R-MS) YES
Lott, Trent (R-MS) YES
Baucus, Max (D-MT) YES XX
Burns, Conrad (R-MT) YES
Dole, Elizabeth (R-NC) yes
Edwards, John (D-NC) NO
Conrad, Kent (D-ND) yes XX
Dorgan, Byron (D-ND) yes XX
Hagel, Chuck (R-NE) YES
Nelson, Ben (D-NE) yes XX
Gregg, Judd (R-NH) YES
Sununu, John (R-NH) YES
Corzine, Jon (D-NJ) NO
Lautenberg, Frank (D-NJ) no
Bingaman, Jeff (D-NM) no
Domenici, Pete (R-NM) YES
Ensign, John (R-NV) YES
Reid, Harry (D-NV) no
Clinton, Hillary (D-NY) NO
Schumer, Charles (D-NY) NO
DeWine, Mike (R-OH) YES
Voinovich, George (R-OH) YES
Inhofe, James (R-OK) YES
Nickles, Don (R-OK) YES
Smith, Gordon (R-OR) YES
Wyden, Ron (D-OR) NO
Santorum, Rick (R-PA) YES
Specter, Arlen (R-PA) yes
Chafee, Lincoln (R-RI) no XX
Reed, Jack (D-RI) NO
Graham, Lindsey (R-SC) YES
Hollings, Ernest (D-SC) YES XX
Daschle, Thomas (D-SD) yes XX
Johnson, Tim (D-SD) yes XX
Alexander, Lamar (R-TN) YES
Frist, Bill (R-TN) YES
Cornyn, John (R-TX) YES
Hutchison, Kay (R-TX) YES
Bennett, Robert (R-UT) YES
Hatch, Orrin (R-UT) YES
Allen, George (R-VA) YES
Warner, John (R-VA) YES
Jeffords, James (I-VT) NO
Leahy, Patrick (D-VT) NO
Cantwell, Maria (D-WA) NO
Murray, Patty (D-WA) no
Feingold, Russell (D-WI) no
Kohl, Herb (D-WI) no
Byrd, Robert (D-WV) YES XX
Rockefeller, John (D-WV) yes XX
Enzi, Michael (R-WY) YES
Thomas, Craig (R-WY) YES