Kerry's not gonna get caught. He's gonna win, and he's gonna win pretty big.
Clark's fallen off a cliff, and looks locked into 4th.
Dean bounced off of a bottom in the low teens, but I think he faces a ceiling in the low 20's. He's in a race with Edwards for 2nd.
Edwards is surging, but it's coming too late to challenge Kerry. He should easily beat Dean for 2nd unless Kerry gets significantly upwards of 40%.
Dean's hardcore provides him a solid 20% of the vote. If Kerry sucks up enough soft voters, there could so few of them that Edwards would be kept out of 2nd. However, I don't see this as likely happening. I think Edwards will comfortably get 2nd over Dean.
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And to reiterate from earlier posts, if Kerry wins NH really big, say 15 - 20 points, this entire nomination race is over.