Daily Kos: Maps: US Has Bush Blues; Last Year Compared (Survey USA polls)

Maps: US Has Bush Blues; Last Year Compared (Survey USA polls)

by dreaminonempty

Thu May 18, 2006 at 05:16:17 AM PDT

(From the diaries.)

Our country is sick of Bush. Survey USA's May polls have him at 33% approval nationwide, another significant decrease from last month. This number is right between the averages of Pollkatz (33.7) and Political Arithmetik (32.2) as of this writing.

Compare the current approval map to the map from just one year ago:

Click to enlarge.

Bush is barely hanging on to approval greater than 50% in just two states: Utah and Idaho.
Does it matter? Well, the reporting I heard on his speech Monday was no longer aglow with words like leadership, strength, and vision - rather it was about whether an unpopular president had enough clout to get anything done.

Below you'll find the updated animation, updated county and district level approval estimates, and comparisons to last year for gender, age, party, and race.

dreaminonempty's diary :: ::

Changes among states

Only Montana had a significant increase, and 39 states showed a decrease in approval. Washington and Oregon, where gas prices continued to climb last month, showed significant decreases in approval, as well as Arkansas, Missouri, and Kansas. Tennessee and Kentucky had decreases on the borderline of significance. Anybody know what was going on in this region? Johnnygunn noticed it too.

The updated animation is here:

Click to animate. Large file.

Backup versions(smaller too) here and here, in case you see the golden frogs.

Again, don't forget to check the website of Radical Russ for a different view of the Survey USA data. And take a look at m maddog's diary too.

Death by a Million Paper Cuts (with lemon juice)

I think many of us have been wondering, as each new scandal comes up, will this be the one to send Bush's ratings tumbling? What may have happened over the past year is that for each scandal, his ratings tumbled in smaller, affected groups. Here's two examples:

On the left, approval for a group roughly labeled Plains Indian. These are the ratings from the racial group `Other' for the Northern Plains states with high percentages American Indian in this category, according to the Census (WY, MT, ND, SD). Politically, the same behavior is seen in each of these states separately and together: a massive drop (22 - 42 points) between July and August 2005. What happened? Perhaps the indictment of Jack Abramoff on August 11, and the reporting beforehand, had something to do with it.

On the right, approval in New Jersey. Three of the six ports involved in the Dubai Ports deal were New York, Newark, and Philadelphia. After the deal became public, Bush's approval rating dropped 11 points.

County and District Estimates

The diary from a few months ago estimating Bush's approval in counties and districts is now hopelessly optimistic - for Bush. New estimates, which aren't as solid because they rely on only one month's worth of data, are shown below. For details and explanations see the older diary.

Click to enlarge. 2004 districts shown.

There are only 8 congressional districts where Bush's estimated approval rating tops 50%. There are 52 where it is less than 20%. Of the seats currently held by Republicans, approval of Bush is estimated in the 30s or lower for 116 of them. It's no guarantee, but it sure isn't helping the Rubber Stamp Republicans. For a pure red/blue version of the county or state maps, see this post at MyDD.

Map Notes
The maps below compare data from the Survey USA polls in May 2005 and 2006. These measurements among demographic groups in individual states can have errors as high as 10 points (common among the 55+ group, for example). This makes it difficult to be sure a change is real. If you want to know about a specific state, check the original data at Survey USA. However, if you see four of five states in the same region turning a shade or two more blue, you can be fairly confident the approval ratings among that group in that region are truly decreasing.

Bush Stinks; Republicans Hold Breath, Turn Blue?

Approval of Bush among Republicans has fallen below 50% in both New York and New Jersey. Bush's base is cracking. The fall in his overall approval ratings has been driven by support among Republicans falling from near unanimity to the mid 60s. The most dramatic: New Jersey, falling 31 points over the past year. The few Democrats who approve of Bush stubbornly continue to do so, for some strange reason. Independents in some states have approval ratings falling into the nice green territory. For more details on approval by party, see this diary.

Click to enlarge. Extremes of approval are represented by green (low) and purple (high).

Party May 06 May 05 Change Republicans 64 (83) -19 Democrats 12 (13) -1 Independents 29 (35) -6

Gender Gap Still There

Women still approve of Bush less than men do, although the gap has narrowed. Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho are notable pink spots in a sea of blue on the May 2006 map for women.

Click to enlarge.

Gender May 06 May 05 Change Male 36 (47) -11 Female 31 (39) -8

Generations Apart
Only five states have a significant decrease in approval for the 55+ age group, partly because of smaller numbers in this category. Most states have significant decreases among the youngest groups, up to a 27 point decrease for the 18-34 crowd in Minnesota. I'm amazed how high the ratings are for the 55+ group, given Medicare Part D. The youngest age group has an overall rating below 30.

Click to enlarge.

Age May 06 May 05 Change 18-34 29 (40) -11 35-54 35 (45) -10 55+ 36 (43) -7

Bush Unites Us

Survey USA has four categories for race: White, Hispanic, Black, and Other. Whites have decreased in approval the most, as White, Hispanic, and Other head towards the low, low approval ratings maintained over the past year among Blacks. For more detail on race, see this diary.

For three of the four categories, the maps below include only states where the error is less than 10 points or there is a significant change from last year to this year. Responses are aggregated over a three month period in order to include more states.

There is essentially no change among Blacks, except for Utah, Idaho, and New Mexico. Approval among Hispanics fell significantly many places (CA, CO, ID, NM, HI, CT, NY, NJ, IL, MI, KY, SC, TX). For Other, besides the Plains states discussed above, approval fell in MN, OK, HI, and AL, but rose in IL.