Before Christmas I wrote a diary trying to crystal ball gaze the congressional races in New York. Now that Boehlert has announced his retirement I think it is a good time to revisit New York to assess Dem chances of picking up some Repub districts.
Below the fold.............
The Democrats hold 20/29 districts and should hold all 20 this year. IMHO no matter the outcome this year NY Dems will be ruing 2006 as a missed opportunity. After all how often can the perfect storm exist of an unpopular Repub President AND Dem candidates for US Senate and NY Gov who will more than likely both top 60% of the vote. In a perfect election cycle the Dems could actually win more than half of these races but 2006 won't be that election though it should be. In looking at the NY house races remember this: Bush only got more than 55% of the vote in 2004 in 2 districts. 2!
My take on the 9 Repub held CD's is as follows:
NY 3
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT PETE KING - 7TH TERM
2004 - KING RECEIVED 63% OF VOTE
- BUSH RECEIVED 51.6% OF VOTE, KERRY 46.94%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP +66802
11/05 - GOP +63431
DISTRICT BLOG: http://kingwatch.blogspot.com/
MAIN CANDIDATES: David Denenberg??? - Nassau County Legislator - http://www.davedenenberg.com/
This race is in the increasing Dem friendly Suffolk and Nassau counties. This is the last of the GOP districts on Long Island that they still hold. The 1st, 2nd, and 4th have all been won off them by Dems since 1996. This is a district that the Dems will probably win when King retires but with a good candidate it was winnable this year. Unfortunately the first two choices as candidates State Rep Davis Bishop and Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias have both declined leaving Denenberg as a far from ideal 3rd choice.
Why far from ideal well read this article for more: http://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/...
(He pled guilty to an election misdemeanor last year.)
Like most Kossacks I was hoping Suozzi would stay out of the Gubernatorial race and opt instead for the 3rd but alas it was not to be.
This race will go down as a real missed opportunity IMHO.
NY 13
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT VITO FOSSELLA - 5TH TERM
2004 - FOSSELLA RECEIVED 59% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 54.61% OF VOTE, KERRY 44.50%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - DEM! +61200
11/05 - DEM! +59799
DISTRICT BLOGS: http://ny13.blogspot.com/
http://vetovito.blogspot.com/
MAIN CANDIDATES:
This district was held by Democrats pre-Fossella and will probably flip back when he moves on (particularly with that voter reg. advantage) but Staten Island is the one reliable bit of NYC left for the GOP.
Life just got very interesting in NY 13. Presumptive Dem candidate Steve Harrison who has no website or recent press mentions has a primary rival. NYC Councilman Bill De Blasio is considering the race. Apparently he is being supported by the DCCC. Whilst the DCCC's support for candidates is often controversial this is not one of those occasions (fortunately).
IMHO this race is THE missed opportunity for the NY Dems in this cycle. There are more registered Des than Repubs in this district despite the fact that they voted for Bush over Kerry. In a state where Dems have become quite adept at winning Repub Districts this is a shocking missed opportunity. If there weren't other more competitive house races in NY then the 13th might be top tier but now it won't, and that is shameful I reckon.
NY 19
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT SUE KELLY 6TH TERM
2004 - KELLY GOT 67% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 53.43% OF VOTE, KERRY 45.06%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 18411
11/05 - GOP + 16322
DISTRICT BLOG: http://take19.blogspot.com/
MAIN CANDIDATES: 5 candidates so far - Judy Aydelott (D) - Attorney
John Hall (D) - Ex-Ulster County Legislator, Ex-Saugerties School Board Member & Musician
Jim Martorano (D) - Yorktown Town Councilman & Attorney
Darren Rigger (D) - Political Fundraising Consultant
Ben Shuldiner (D) - High School Principal & Teacher
With 5 Dem candidates including one ex Repub this race is a raffle.
Not a great Voter Reg for Kelly and like 8/9 NY districts trending away from the GOP. This district includes Westchester County, which is very quickly becoming very Dem friendly.
Bush did comparatively well here though; 4th highest vote in NY CD's.
The interesting thing about this race is that Kelly is being challenged from the left/right? By ex log cabin field directorJeff Cook (R).
It is hard to tell who will win the GOP primary and what affect it will have on the general.
Were it not for an open race in 24 and a competitive run in 29 this one might be second tier. As it is we should hope for a clean primary and see what the 2006 NY Dem tide brings.
NY 20
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT JOHN SWEENEY 4TH TERM
2004 - SWEENEY GOT 66% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 52.82% OF VOTE, KERRY 45.06%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 88667
11/05 - GOP + 85143
DISTRICT BLOG: http://20trueblue.blogspot.com/
MAIN CANDIDATES Kirsten Gillibrand : http://www.gillibrand2006.com/
Morris Guller : http://www.gullerforcongress.org/
Expect Gillibrand to be the candidate. She has already raised more cash than the previous two opponents. Gillibrand has managed to swing over some anti-Sweeney Repubs to her cause largely owing to her family history apparently. Gillibrand has generated some very impressive state and national media from her campaign war room.
On the down side however, the GOP Voter Reg advantage has to make this race a harder one to win in NY. Watch this space.
NY 23
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT JOHN MC HUGH 7TH TERM
2004 - MC HUGH GOT 71% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 51.03% OF VOTE, KERRY 46.86%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 65480
11/05 - GOP + 62451
DISTRICT BLOG:
MAIN CANDIDATES: Bob Johnson : http://johnsonforcongress.org/
Good on doctor Bob for running again but this one hasn't crossed the radar at all. Dunno what he has done to be included on a no fly list and I can't tell whether this will be a positive or negative for him.
Comparatively high GOP voter registration advantage but Bush only clocked 51% of vote in 04. If the sleaze tide runs high this could be in the frame but otherwise not a great chance.
NY 24
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT SHERWOOD BOEHLERT 12TH TERM
2004 - BOEHLERT GOT 57% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 51.95% OF VOTE, KERRY 45.90%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 41306
11/05 - GOP + 39668
DISTRICT BLOG: http://takeback24.blogspot.com/
MAIN CANDIDATES:
Mike Arcuri (D) - Oneida County District Attorney
Brian Goodell (D) - University Employee, Ex-UAW Local President & '04 Candidate
Leon Koziol (D/C/IP/WF) - Attorney
Les Roberts (D) - Epidemiologist & College Professor
Bruce Tytler (D) - Ex-Cortland Mayor
Arcuri is apparently the pick of the bunch.
As an open race the 24th will be the most competitive race this year in NY. Note that Bushes vote here was the 4th lowest of the GOP held CD's in NY.
Boehlert managed to win despite not having the Conservative party line for at least 4 of the last 5 elections. If the eventual GOP candidate can snare the Conservative line then it gets a bit harder for Democrats to win but will still be a barnburner by virtue of being an open race.
NY 25
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT JAMES WALSH 9TH TERM
2004 - WALSH WAS UNOPPOSED
- BUSH GOT 47.77% OF VOTE, KERRY 50.31%!!!
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 24683
11/05 - GOP + 22407
DISTRICT BLOG: http://thewalshwatch.blogspot.com/
MAIN CANDIDATES:
Paloma Capanna (D) - Attorney
Ken Howland (D) - Teacher, Army Veteran & '80 Candidate
Dan Maffei (D) - Ex-Congressional Aide, Businessman & Democratic Activist
Christina Rosetti (D) - Educator & Frequent Candidate
Despite the fact that this district voted for Kerry this race is struggling to get oxygen in a state full of high profile races. This is a pity because it would be a top tier race in any other state or in any other year.
Maffei or Capanna seem to be the picks of the bunch.
NY 26
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT TOM REYNOLDS 4TH TERM
2004 - REYNOLDS GOT 56% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 55.17% OF VOTE, KERRY 43.05%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 45442
11/05 - GOP + 44249
DISTRICT BLOG - ?
MAIN CANDIDATES - Jack Davis - http://www.jackdavis.org/...
Davis is wealthy and held Reynolds to 56% in 04. If the DCCC tip in some assistance this could be a cracker, but they won't so it won't; and Davis hasn't been running an exactly active campaign. Mind you how good would it be to knock off the NRCC chairman?
On the other hand note that Reynolds got about the same vote as Bush unlike most other GOP incumbents in NY who ran ahead of Bush. Voter reg advantage is middle of the road for GOP held districts also. I think this one needs some polling but has the potential to be a flip but will be lost in the ether because of the Gov race, the 24th and 29th.
NY 29
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT - RANDY KUHL 1ST TERM
2004 - KUHL GOT 51% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 56.31% OF VOTE, KERRY 41.90%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 64713
11/05 - GOP + 62669
DISTRICT BLOG: - ?
MAIN CANDIDATES: only one declared the fighting Dem Eric Massa: http://www.massaforcongress.com/.
Make no mistake about it this is a real pick up chance. The only GOP held district in New York where the House candidate (Kuhl) got LESS of the vote than Bush. This is largely because the Conservative Party ran their own candidate. Kuhl has character issues up to his eyeballs including threatening his ex wife at a dinner party with a shotgun on more than one occasion.
Kuhl is up against Band of Brothers Fighting Dem Eric Massa (who saw active service in Desert storm 1). Massa has been merrily blogging away and is seen as a leader of the fighting Dems and can count on significant support from Wesley Clark.
Dems are moving from strength to strength in this part of NY and with Bush's support tanking this should be a marquee race. Some Kossacks have said that we would have won this in 2004 but for an inexperienced candidate and a bad campaign. Maybe maybe not but this will be competitive.
So in conclusion interesting times indeed in NY for the Democratic Party and at least 2 and maybe up to 5 competitive races.
In summary my call of the races is as follows:
1 Barnburner - 24th
1 Competitive race - 29th
1 Watch this space - 20th
2 Look at post primary - 19th and 25th. These two may light up but are more likely to disappear into the ether.
3 Should be competitive but are not (badly missed opportunities) - 3rd, 13th and 26th.
1 Hail Mary - 23rd
Dems to win the 24th and maybe the 29th.
Enjoy.