For those who believed that Ned Lamont's challenge to Senator Joe Lieberman was doomed to failure from the start, even a cursory look at Survey USA's April poll reveals that Lieberman is in the midst of a serious fight.
Since October of last year, Lieberman's overall approval rating in Connecticut has plummeted 12 percentage points. Over that same period, his net approval rating (approval minus disapproval, not taking into account undecided voters) contracted from 42% to just 19%. Furthermore, in the short period of less than a month since Ned Lamont declared his candidacy, Lieberman's overall approval rating has dropped 5 percentage points and his disapproval rating has spiked 7 percentage points.
The collapse in Lieberman's support within the Democratic Party has been even more shocking. From a net approval rating of 47% in October, it has now shriveled to a paltry 13%. With some fifteen weeks remaining until the August 9 primary and Lieberman's support in seeming free-fall, Mr. Lamont appears to be in a very strong position, indeed.
If Lieberman hopes to survive in the general election by appealing to moderate voters as a "maverick" and a centrist, his prospects have also dimmed. Although he holds a net approval rating of 25% among independents, his support from that segment of voters has also begun to crumble badly. Late last year Lieberman's approval rating among moderates passed 70%. Now, however, it stands at just 60%. His disapproval rating among moderates has also risen sharply to 35% in the April poll from just 26% as late as January. And as with Democrats overall, his standing among moderates has fallen precipitously since Ned Lamont announced in March.
Should Lieberman wish to remain a Democrat and win the party's nomination in August, the trend is running very much against him. Amongst Democrats since last October, his approval rating plummeted 17 percentage points and his disapproval rating shot up by the same degree. Since Ned Lamont's announcement, Lieberman's disapproval rating among Democrats has risen 6 percentage points. The important point of those figures is that, although the decline has accelerated since Lamont emerged as a serious challenger, the collapse in Lieberman's Democratic support began well before Ned even appeared on the scene.
Ironically, Lieberman's continued rock-solid approval by Republicans (who only comprise a quarter of the electorate in the Constitution State) only serves to alienate Democrats and Independents. Lieberman's 70% support from Republicans far exceeds his support from either Democrats or independents, and it hasn't dropped one iota. Lieberman has suggested that he will run as an independent if he is not renominated by the Democrats. That he has raised that possibility of bolting the party also begs the question of whether, if reelected as a Democrat, he will switch party affiliation after the election and hand his seat to the Republicans out of spite.
Last, take a look at his support in Fairfield County. While he is more popular here than in the rest of the state, not least due to the high concentration of Republican voters here, his support has eroded sharply. Since Ned's announcement, his negative rating has risen 8 percentage points. And those rated "not sure" have fallen from 10% to just 6%. Taken together, there is a strong negative trend developing against Lieberman in this part of the state.
All of that, Ladies and Gentlemen, means that Mr. Lieberman is in big trouble and that Mr. Lamont is within range of taking a Senate seat!