CA-50: Post-mortem

Well, it seems everything I've been saying for the last few months came to happen.

1) Democrats are not motivated to turn out. Sure, Busby exceeded Kerry's 43 percent he got in the district in 2004, but not by much. She got 45.46%. If the "culture of corruption" message was enough to bring people out to vote Democratic, this would be the place to do it. This is Duke Cunningham territory, he of the million dollar mansions, yachts, and hookers. Regardless, district voters sent a lobbyist back to Washington to represent them.

2) 2006 will be a base election -- the party that wins is the party that gets more pf its partisans to the polls. Busby worked hard to win the independent vote. And like Kerry in 2004, she probably won it. But it does no good when the other side gets more of its voters out to the polls. And a milquetoast campaign that hides partisan divisions and stresses "competence" will not inspire our partisans to come out and vote. The Republicans, on the other hand, made sure to rile up their base. Busby helped with her unfortunate comments that were so easily twisted out of context by the right wing noise machine, but they'll do that to every single one of our candidates.

And if a Democrat doesn't provide the easy ammo, it doesn't matter. They'll simply make it up.

There is one bit of good news that points to serious problems for the GOP in November -- They spent over $11 million to hold what should've been a safe seat. The NRCC alone spent about $5 million, erasing about 20 percent of their previous cash on hand figures of $25 million. Given the numbers of seriously challenged Republican House members, they won't have anywhere near this kind of money to play defense in November. They're in serious trouble.

But Democrats have to be more aggressive. In tactics, in messaging, and, yes, even on the issues. Stoller marvels at how Bilbray ran to the left of Busby.

I'm intrigued by Bilbray's platform, which differed starkly from Busby's technocratic 'moderation'.  It's really quite stunning.

Bilbray is a native San Diegan and was born at Coronado Naval Air Station where his father served in the Navy. Prior to his tenure in Congress, Brian spent more than two decades in business and in local government. Brian was instrumental in developing San Diego County's progressive initiatives regarding environmental protection, pollution control, and economic development.

Bilbray knew that progressive messaging was the key to holding the seat.  Busby bought the DC insider line that elections are about 'issues' unconnected to any larger narrative. Americans are mad about high gas prices therefore they will vote for Democrats. She ran against principles, against values, and against the base. She ran against the blogs, not in the sense that she bashed the blogs but in the sense that her message and our message did not overlap (unlike Hackett). Her message was 'look at these bullet points'.  

The lesson from last night should be clear. Hiding from progressives and the left will lead to Democratic losses in 2006. Running as a progressive will lead to victory. Running on 'issues' and 'competence' instead of character will lead to Democratic losses. Talking about how the 'American people' care about gas prices and not gay marriage is insulting and loser politics. Running on bullet points is wrong. Running on character is right.

Busby was no progressive, so she lost. She got the indy votes, but couldn't turn out progressive voters and couldn't keep in conservative voters. That's my reading of the race. We should cut the 'googoo competence and ignore everything else strategy', it doesn't work.  

As I travelled the country extensively on my book tour I heard the same points over and over again, in city after city. Regular activists out in the states understand these concepts. But the DC bubble politicians and consultants simply don't get it.

The "culture of corruption" is a nice secondary theme to weave into our broader narrative, but it can't be the message on which we pin our 2006 hopes."We're better managers" won't inspire our troops to head to battle.

This will be a base election. Inspire and motivate.

See Montana Democrats like Gov. Brian Schweitzer and Jon Tester for a taste of how that's done. The corruption message helped MT Dems take over the governor's mansion and legislature in 2004, but that was just a sub-thread of their broader message.  

They, and others like Paul Hackett would've won CA-50.

Update: The GOP spent $11 million on the race, the Dems $4.7 million. That investment bought Republicans a 4-point victory in one of the most Republican districts around. Busby lost that seat by 22 points in 2004. No matter what the spin (I think we should've won this seat), fact is the GOP isn't sitting pretty.