The diary the other day on possible U.S. plans for Iraqi Death Squads got me thinking. We all expressed our outrage at such a plan, but it shouldn't have been a surprise. The Bush team will ALWAYS find a way to depart from the normal script or game expectations.
That got me thinking about the Iraqi elections and whether the administration is deliberately lowering expectations for the vote in order to claim victory later.
Below are a sampling of articles over the last week or two on Iraq and the elections:
Powell Worried About Post-Election Iraq
Some Areas in Iraq may be too Unsafe for Vote
Bush Says Four Iraqi Areas Pose Voting Challenges
General: Key Iraq areas unsafe for vote
There was also a story which I can't locate at the moment, where another general said he expected attacks to intensify as January 30th approaches.
Here is my concern: Bush is starting to set a low bar - elections will happen in most of Iraq, but maybe not so well in 4 Sunni provinces. In that environment, if they are able to gin up any kind of turnout in Sunni areas, they can spin it as a victory for the process.
Now that wouldn't be bad except for one thing - the vote doesn't get rid of the underlying problem that there are no Iraqi security forces capable of fighting the insurgents. So, you might be able to claim a political victory (look! most people voted!), but then it would still be up to U.S. forces to protect and enforce the will of the Interim Government as it designs the constitution. If you have any significant Sunni participation, there's a chance that
no one will win a majority in the national assembly. In that scenario, you can't count on the Shi'as to push us to leave.
In short, my biggest fear is that the election will be just successful enough for the administration to argue that we need to keep our troops there to "finish the job." We'll be stuck trying to keep the balance between the factions, keep the constitutional process moving forward, while the insurgents will keep hitting our troops harder and harder.
More importantly, any vaguely successful election opens the door to blaming Iran or Syria for continuing violence, setting the stage for a new war to feed the Dear Leader's appetite for empire.