Poll of 50 most competitive races

Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) teamed up to do a bipartisan poll of the 50 tightest House races. What did they find (PDF)?

Composition of competitive seats:

40 Republican
1 Independent (the Vermont seat)
9 Democratic

12 open seats (10 of them Republican, 1 Democratic, 1 Independent)

Findings

• 61 percent think the country is headed in the wrong direction, to 31 percent who think things are just peachy.

• The Iraq War is the biggest concern, and 31 percent list it as either their first or second most important issue when decided who to vote for. The economy comes second at 27 percent. Dems lead on every single issue, with huge advantages in stem cell research (51-33), "values issues" (51-37), and narrower leads in Iraq (49-44) and the economy (49-42). Democrats do not trail on any issue, and are tied in just one -- illegal immigration (41-41). Among independents, Democrats win on the issues with even bigger margins.

• While the seats are heavily Republican, Bush is at 42 percent approval rating.

• Only 29 percent say they will definitely or probably vote to reelect the incumbent. 46 percent want alternatives.

• Democratic intensity is much higher than Republican interest. 66 percent of Democrats are "very interested", compared to 56 percent of Republicans. 49 percent of Independents are very interested, suggesting that yes, this really WILL be a base election.

• Enthusiasm is much higher than the last mid-term elections. It's higher, actually, than in 1988 and 1994. And of those who are enthusiastic, Democrat have a handy lead. 62 percent of Democrats are more enthusiastic this cycle than usual, while Republican clock in at 49 percent. Independents lag at 48 percent.

• In the generic congressional ballot, Dems lead 48-41. When naming real names, it's 49-43. They didn't include any names, unfortunately. The district-by-district MoE was probably too high (1,000 total respondents in 50 districts).

• In Democratic-held district, when using names, the Democrats lead a combined 60-29. Doesn't seem very close. In Republican-held districts, Democrats lead 49-45. In the "top-tier" races, Republicans trail 52-42. In "second-tier" races, Republicans trail 47-44.

Yesterday I highlighted this quote from the early battle between Murtha and Hoyer for the number two slot in the House. It was from a Hoyer ally badmouthing Murtha's anti-war stance:

But some Democrats, particularly centrist lawmakers who support Hoyer, question whether Murtha can be helpful in many races that their party needs to win if they are to capture control of the House.

"I'm sure Mr. Murtha is going to be traveling extensively, but I bet you he won't be going to Blue Dog districts," one lawmaker said, referring to members of the caucus of centrist Democrats from the South. "I can't imagine that he will be very welcome in many Blue Dog districts."

The lawmaker said that while Murtha has a centrist record on many issues, voters would be most aware of his strong position against the war, which could alienate swing voters in states Bush won. The lawmaker noted that Democrats need to capture districts in those so-called red states.

So what does this poll tell us about Iraq?

We've already seen that it is one of the top two issues for a great deal of respondents. For all respondents, Democrats are preferred on the Iraq War issue 49-44. Among independents, the split is even more dramatic -- 50-35.

And remember, these are mostly Republican-held districts (40 of the 50 polled).

Update: Want more polls? DemFromCT has them. NYT/CBS poll pegs support for a widthdrawal from Iraq at 56 percent.