A while ago, Fidelity (I have an IRA with them) sent me a letter asking if I would be willing to take surveys now and again. I said yes, and yesterday, they sent me the URL for an online survey which was nominally about retirement, but in practice was ~90% on Social Security "reform". Some of the questions, and a few thoughts, below....
(nb: There wasn't any sort of copyright notice on the survey. I am only going to quote sections of it, not the whole thing)
Outlook
I am concerned about the solvency of the Social Security system
I am confident that my assets will last through my lifetime
I am willing to take more risk to get better returns on my investments
I am concerned about the future of the U.S. economy
I will have enough money to pay for my healthcare expenses in retirement
Opening question. These were agree/disagree choices for each line. Seems to be framed in a reasonably balanced way, avoiding words like crisis and bankruptcy.
Congress Priority
Creating a new employer-sponsored retirement savings account designed to simplify and consolidate qualified plans (e.g., 401(k), 403(b))
Reforming the Social Security system
Making temporary tax cuts permanent (e.g., estate, dividend, capital gains, and income)
Creating additional tax-favored savings vehicles for individuals
Reforming the income tax system
Extending health care coverage to more people
Reducing the federal deficit
Addressing issues with the Medicare system (e.g., cost, coverage)
Rate each issue in importance, 1 to 5. This question seems biased somewhat towards various GOP financial programs. After all, who can be against reforming the tax code? Well, anyone who realizes that "reform" is GOP-speak for "millionaire giveaway".
What role(s) do you feel Social Security should play?
Please select all that apply
To provide guaranteed social insurance for basic retirement needs, disability, and survivors
To act as a mandatory retirement savings program to accumulate adequate retirement resources
Now the fun begins.... Next come a few questions asking in general how well I understand the issue, and where I get my information from. The only interesting bit was that under information sources, AARP was singled out. Tragically, USANext seems to have been omitted.
Which of the following four statements comes closest to your own view of the Social Security program?
Please select one
The program is in crisis
The program has major problems, but is not in crisis
The program has minor problems
The program has no problems
I'd love to see what the breakdown of responses is on this question. Unfortunately, Fidelity isn't likely to publicize the results.
A variety of options have been suggested to deal with future financial problems with Social Security and the list that follows contains some of the ways that have been suggested. Each proposal would have roughly an equal impact on the solvency of the Social Security system.
For each one of the following, would you be in favor of or oppose such a proposal?
Raise the early retirement age to 64 and reduce early retirement benefits below current level
Gradually raise the retirement age for Social Security to 70 by 2057
Increase the tax rate on wages to 13.2%
Cut guaranteed benefits for wealthier retirees (5% cut for those with more than $50,000 in annual retirement income, up to 45% cut for those with more than $130,000)
Cut guaranteed benefits by 10% across the board for those under 55
Increase the cap on wages subject to Social Security tax to $140,000
Reduce the annual rate of growth in benefits by 1/2% for those under 55 (equal to half the benefit cut caused by indexing benefits to prices rather than wages)
Some of these fixes I've never heard of (in particular the early retirement option). What I find more interesting is what isn't included. Private accounts. Remember, when Bush first started trying to sell his plan, it was under the rationale that the higher yield of the stock market would save Social Security. Now, that concept is so dead dead dead that pollsters don't even include it in a menu of conceivable options.
The survey then gives a resonable overview of what is known about Bushplan, including the clawback and reductions in defined benefits, and asks which of the various features are attractive, and then asks if I would support or oppose such a plan in general. Since I selected oppose, I got a followup question:
What are the main reasons you oppose personal accounts? Please select all that apply
I am concerned I would get a lower total benefit because I couldn't achieve return of inflation plus 3%
Pre-retirement withdrawals or loans are not allowed (for any reason)
I am opposed to financial firms' involvement in a government program
I am not eligible because of my age -- they would not benefit me
The risk of losing money in volatile markets
The administration costs could be higher than the current system
It is the government's responsibility to manage and provide Social Security benefits
Accounts alone would not solve Social Security problems
I am concerned that the government would have to borrow too much money to set up the program
People could make poor investment decisions and receive lower benefits
This is a step toward eliminating government paid Social Security
Then a question about the clawback:
Under one proposal, your account would need an annual return of inflation plus 3% for you to receive as much as those who elected to stay entirely under the traditional Social Security system. Would you be more willing to fund a Social Security personal account if the break-even rate were lower -- inflation plus 2%?
After answering no, the question repeated, but with a 1% threshold.
Finally, they ask for some predictions for the future:
If steps are not taken to reform Social Security, what portion of the retirement benefits that you are entitled to do you think you will receive?
All of the benefits (100%)
Most of the benefits
About half
Some benefits, but less than half
None of these
In general, with the possible exception of the question about Congress, this was a pretty balanced poll. It gave reasonably full descriptions of the different proposals, as much as is possible anyway, and avoided loaded language. That's interesting because Fidelity would very likely be one of the companies that would make out very very well under Bushplan. You'd think that they'd have a vested interest in pushing this.
By describing the President's plan in as much detail as he's ever used (though never mentioning that the plan comes from Bush), this survey is also contributing in a small way to increasing knowledge of the details. And as we know from other polls, the more people learn of Bushplan, the less they like it.
-dms