This
Rasmussen poll, by way of Pandagon, might have some portent.
August 5, 2004--Rasmussen Reports finds John Kerry with a 7-point lead over George W. Bush among New Mexico voters. Our first Election 2004 survey in the state shows Kerry with 50% of the vote, Bush with 43%, and Libertarian Michael Badnarik with 5%. Ralph Nader is not on the ballot in New Mexico.
This moves New Mexico to the "Leans Kerry" column for our Electoral College projection. Four years ago, Gore won the state by less than 400 votes.
There's reason to believe this number will hold up. New Mexico's Republicans are more libertarian than average - the state elected anti-drug war Republican Gary Johnson governor in 1994 and 1998. And the lack of Nader means something - Greens compete pretty strongly here, and Nader polled 3.5% in 2000. Libertarian candidate Harry Browne didn't make much of an impact
in 2000, but the rest of the data augurs poorly for Bush.