MyDD's 2006 House forecast

Chris Bowers has put together his House Forecast 2006 (PDF). It's quite the document, with a ton of great information.

it's manna for political junkies.

I currently project Democrats to take 15-25 seats, which would give them a narrow majority of between 218-228 seats. I am a little worried that in the final decisions I was too optimistic by a tier in a few races (FL-16, ID-01, IL-06, NY-24, OH-01, OH-02, PA-07, PA-08, TX-17 and WA-08) and too pessimistic by a tier in others (FL-13, IN-02, NY-20 and WV-01). Overall I think it is a very good forecast even if, perhaps, very slightly too optimistic.

What I am not worried about is competition. The sheer amount of information I offer in this forecast easily surpasses anything publicly available anywhere in the nation. In this forecast, I include the following:

• The top 60 House races in the nation, grouped by competitiveness tier.


• The names of both the Democratic and Republican candidates in all 60 races.


• The relative cash on hand in all 60 races


• The partisan voting index for all 60 districts


• The 2004 margin in all 60 districts


• The latest poll, if any, from all 60 districts


• Notifications as to whether each district is an open seat, held by a freshman, has a repeat challenger, or has been targeted for ad buys by the DCCC


• Mini-commentary on each district

I love blogs.

Update: And for the record, I still don't think we'll win back either chamber. I've seen the GOP close the deal too many times before for me to get complacent and cocky. Nah. I think we'll win 7-14 seats in the House, 3-5 in the Senate.

Yeah, I know such pessimism is tough when the numbers, data, and current events give so much cause for optimism, but I was burned two cycles in a row. I'm not getting my hopes up.

And in any case, I'm fully prepared (and eager, this time) to be completely wrong a third election cycle in a row.