Analysis of both polls and focus states:
Their strategies focused heavily but not exclusively on essentially tied races in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico
If correct then:
Bush Safe/Lean: 222
Kerry Safe/Lean: 217
Tossup: 99
the analysis says the other BG states would not come into play unless these swing states already swung
A surge by either candidate 3 or 4 percentage points in national polls could shift the eight states and the 99 electoral votes to one candidate, putting him on course for a 300-plus electoral romp. That would put other states on the bubble Democratic-leaning Minnesota, Michigan, Maine and perhaps even New Jersey if Bush takes off; and GOP-leaning Colorado, West Virginia and Arizona if Kerry gains steam.
As most analysis state, it agrees that Kerry needs to pickup OH or FL, and surmises OH is easier:
Though public polls suggest those races are essentially tied, pollsters and campaign strategists say Kerry appears slightly stronger in Ohio than in Florida. The Buckeye state has lost 237,000 jobs since Bush took office and many voters are growing weary of the state GOP.
In general, I think its right. I do believe that AR, AZ, CO, and WV are doable for Kerry, but only after he nails down FL and/or OH....do you all agree?
read full analysis here