"As deeply soured on the Carter Administration as most of the electorate was, it also withheld its approval of the competition until the last minute. Quietly, privately and perhaps a little grimly, most Americans has probably decided that Carter had had it as early as 18 months before November."
-TIME Man Of The Year essay, 1980: Ronald Reagan.
Final Gallup Poll in 1980 Election:
Poll/ Actual Result/ Comparison
Reagan 47.0 50.8 -3.8
Carter 44.0 41.0 +3.0
Anderson 8.0 6.6 +1.4
That is perhaps my most favorite passage from the terrific TIME MOTY essays (pre-1995). The lesson, I think, is that to expect the American voting public to turn away en masse from the incumbent several months out from the November election is ridiculous. Even Jimmy Carter- a president confronted with tremendous hardships that he just couldn't
seem to handle effectually managed to stay in tossup range right up until election day. In fact, if you look at the trend throughout that entire election season Carter held significant leads on Mr. Reagan into late Spring/early Summer, before finally settling in behind for the better half of the 3 months. As late as October Mr. Carter held a 47-39 advantage (go here to verify
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1252).
Why does it take so long to put away an incumbent? For one, you're asking a segment of the population that voted for him last time to admit they were mistaken. Anyone who has confronted an average Americans knows this can be a painstakingly long duration.
But another more fundamental reason is that Americans don't really sense the character and case for a challenger until the debates. Leading up to his confrontations with Carter in 1980, Reagan had been losing ground. His base was intact, largely, but those uncommitted flocked to the tried and untrue but well known Carter. After the debates (in which Reagan quipped his old ass off), and after Americans got a feel for the man that might be their president, they began to rally to his side. That is why I firmly believe that, aside from his convention speech, Kerry will have an opportunity to define himself far more strongly than he can in any television ad during the debates. To me, this is the crucial moment.
Even in 1992 the elder Bush managed to rally back by October to put the outcome of that election in doubt. And again, during the debate, Clinton outperformed and began pulling away in the final few weeks. Polls this far out have very little impact on what will happen in November. Kerry could implode and suffer a Dukakis-style defeat or he could be in the midst of a Clinton-Reagan, falling behind, gathering supporters nip-and-tuck style, and then pulling out for good in the Fall after the debates.
Needless the say, this election will have its own history come November.