*This is an update from September 9th with new notes. The findings are based on rankings from major web resources, polls, discussions with the grassroots, fundraising numbers, ethical issues of for the Republican incumbent, press, and buzz about the campaign.
The 51 seats is a downgrade from the 53 in the last update, However, the number of vulnerable races remains at 30, with 21 races making up the seats that still have realistic potential. These 51 seats encompass 25 states. Each race has a Democratic candidate either vying for an open seat or challenging the incumbent. Although gas prices are going down, the War in Iraq is getting worse. The 9/11 bounce is just about over for the GOP. Things will be mighty interesting in weeks to come.
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2006.
VULNERABLE REPUBLICAN SEATS
"x" means "open seat", all others have the name of the Republican incumbent
Highly vulnerable races (14)
Arizona 08x - Republicans have abandoned ad buys in this district as polls are not working in their favor since the primary. Is the Republican capitulation here a sign of strength for the Democrats, or a sign that the abundance of hot races are stretching Republicans thin?
Colorado 07x
Connecticut 02 (Simmons)
Indiana 02 (Chocola) - Is Indiana really the battleground state, or are conservative Democrats able to win these districts if they play the right hand? While Republican-light didn't work for Kerry, it may work with those who have the credibility to do so, as long as they also run as populists.
Indiana 08 (Hostettler)
Indiana 09 (Sodrel)
Iowa 01x
Kentucky 04 (Davis)
North Carolina 11 (Taylor) - Shuler still seems to have the edge in this one, but it's close.
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach)
Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood) - Sherwood is dogged by two words, mistress and choking.
Texas 22x - Republicans have a write-in, and will likely go after Lampson in 2008.
Virginia 02 (Drake) - Kellam has the name recognition down here to win, even in a conservative-leaning district.
Wisconsin 08x - Kagen won the primary and has a really good shot to win this race given his financial edge. Right now, this race is a toss up.
Vulnerable races (16)
California 11 (Pombo)
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) - The solid polling of a third party conservative candidate and former Reagan official may give Paccione the boost she needs to win in the end. The polls have been consistent, and Musgrave remains around 46%.
Colorado 05x - This race has raised more than a few heads, especially when retiring Republican incumbent Joel Hefley decided to withdraw support for the Republican, Lamborn, and is even considering a write-in candidacy for himself that would take votes away from Lamborn. National Journal has added it to their rankings for the first time ever, the press has started to chatter, and the money has starting rolling in to Fawcett.
Connecticut 04 (Shays)
Connecticut 05 (N. Johnson) - Can the same GOP smear tactics work in Connecticut as they work elsewhere?
Florida 22 (Shaw)
Idaho 01x - This race is anybody's guess at this point. If they vote based on party, Sali runs away with it. If they vote based on the individual, Grant has the edge.
Illinois 06x
Minnesota 06x
New Mexico 01 (Wilson) - Madrid has the financing to take down Wilson, but expect this to be a close race until the end. The district is blue enough for this to happen.
New York 24x - This race will be close, but Arcuri has been keeping an edge.
Ohio 01 (Chabot)
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) - This race is heating up. For those of us who only thought Paul Hackett could win here, it appears as if Schmidt may be more vulnerable than she was the last time.
Ohio 15 (Pryce)
Pennsylvania 08 (Fitzpatrick) - Will Murphy's military record catapult him? Doesn't serving in Iraq kind of make the GOP "Democrats don't support our troops" mantra mute?
Washington 08 (Reichert)
Potential seats (21)
Arizona 01 (Renzi) - A recent poll has Renzi at 45%. Simon has been raising funds and since the primary, she seems to have gotten some momentum. The DCCC has given the race some new attention, listing it as "emerging". Will this still be emerging in a few weeks?
Arizona 05 (Hayworth)
California 04 (Doolittle) - This race is looking more competitive.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) - Kerry got 53% in 2004.
Kentucky 02 (Lewis) - This race got the front page of the Washington Post as they examined tight races in the Mid-South. Lewis looks like he still has a chance in this environment, but he'll still need all the luck he can get to pull the upset.
Kentucky 03 (Northup)
Minnesota 01 (Gutknecht)
Nebraska 01 (Fortenberry)
Nevada 02x
Nevada 03 (Porter)
New Hampshire 02 (Bass)
New Jersey 07 (Ferguson)
New York 03 (King)
New York 20 (Sweeney)
New York 29 (Kuhl)
North Carolina 08 (Hayes) - Kissell better have some more ideas to run on than just gas prices if he expects the upset here.
Ohio 18x - It is still unclear if Ney pleading guilty helps or hurts.
Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon) - This race is slipping fast. Can Sestak make a comeback?
Texas 23 (Bonilla) - Ciro has a real opportunity if he can pull his campaign together in time.
Washington 05 (McMorris) - This race continues to be an intriguing upset possibility.
Wyoming at-large (Cubin) - Trauner has a good ad out, and this race may be a lot hotter than people think.
10 races on the fringe
CA 50 (Bilbray), FL 08 (Keller), FL-13x, FL 16 (Foley), MI-08 (Rogers), MN-02 (Kline), NY 19 (Kelly), NY-25 (Walsh), VA-10 (Wolf), VA-11 (Davis)
*This article will change over time. As I have updated lists, I find that some candidates haven't gotten the fundraising or the press going to really be competitive as of yet. While some races are up and coming, clearly, these are the races that so far have stood out as ones that are currently on track to make a serious run this November. As the campaign season moves ahead, some races will become closer and some will become more distant. I will make further updates in late-September.
**This list does not count Vermont's open seat, where a victory for Democrat Peter Welch would take the seat from Independent to Democrat. However, this race is almost like a Democratic seat since Sanders caucused with the Democrats.
CROSS-POSTED ON RAISING KAINE
Key campaign resources
National Journal Race Rankings: House
Washington Post key races (Governor, Senate, House)
Democratic Candidates for House of Representatives
2004 results analysis
Candidates with ethics issues
Fighting Dems
Key House Races
House Balance of Power Scorecard
Politics1
Larry Sabato (Has fundraising numbers
Election Projection.com