Here is the latest compilation of primary poll results. Besides the roller coaster tracking polls out of IA and NH, there were also polls released (in
bold) from AZ (2), CA (2), DE, IL (2), IA (2), MD, MO, NH (2), NC, NY, OH, and SC.
Our Campaigns and
DC Political Report are the best sources I've found. The calendar comes from
Politics1.
As the races tightened and Dean slumped in IA and NH, Dean was doing well in the rest of the country, maintaining leads and taking leads in states which haven't been polled in months: CA, DE, IL, OH.
We've seen the predictable effect of Dean and Gephardt attacking each other in Iowa: they both fell in the polls. It's anyone's guess as to who will win, although all else being equal, Dean and Gephardt have the edge for their superior organizations. It's been a roller coaster the last couple weeks, but it all comes down to who is surging on Monday and who shows up at the caucus.
January 13
DC: Dean 42.7, Sharpton 34.3, Braun 11.6, Kucinich 8.3
11/21-11/23: Dean 45, Sharpton 11, Braun 8, Kucinich 4 (PSR)
January 19
IA: 01/14-01/16: Kerry 23 (+14), Dean 22 (-4), Gephardt 19 (-3), Edwards 18 (+13), Clark 3 (-1), Kucinich 2 (0), Lieberman 1 (-1), Sharpton 0.2 (-0.1) (ZI)
01/13-01/15: Dean 24 (-5), Edwards 22 (+5), Kerry 21 (0), Gephardt 20 (-2) (SUSA)
01/12-01/14: Dean 22 (-7), Kerry 21 (+3), Edwards 18 (+10), Gephardt 18 (-7), Kucinich 5 (+3), Clark 2 (-1), Lieberman 1 (-1), Sharpton 0 (R2K)
01/05-01/08: Dean 30, Gephardt 23, Kerry 18, Edwards 11, Clark 4, Kucinich 3, Lieberman 2, Braun 0, Sharpton 0 (LAT)
12/??-12/??: Dean 28 (+4), Gephardt 23 (+2), Kerry 21 (0) (MG)
11/18-12/04: Dean 29, Gephardt 21, Kerry 18, Edwards 5, Kucinich 4, Clark 3, Braun 1, Lieberman 1, Sharpton 1 (PR)
11/02-11/05: Gephardt 27, Dean 20, Kerry 15, Edwards 5, Lieberman 5, Clark 4, Kucinich 3, Braun 1, Sharpton 1 (IP)
January 27
NH: 01/14-01/16: Dean 28 (-7), Clark 22 (+1), Kerry 18 (+8), Edwards 8 (+1), Lieberman 6 (-1), Gephardt 3 (-1), Kucinich 1 (-1), Braun 0 (0), Sharpton 0 (0) (ARG)
01/12-01/13: Dean 32 (-3), Clark 17 (+7), Kerry 12 (0), Lieberman 11 (+5), Edwards 3 (-2), Gephardt 3 (-2), Kucinich 1 (-2), Sharpton 1 (-1), Braun 0 (-1) (SU)
01/09-01/11: Dean 35 (-10), Clark 26 (-15), Kerry 13 (-2), Lieberman 9 (-2), Edwards 6 (0), Gephardt 3 (-1) (SUSA)
01/05-01/08: Dean 34 (-7), Clark 14 (+1), Kerry 13 (-4), Gephardt 7 (+3), Lieberman 7 (+1), Edwards 4 (-2), Kucinich 2 (+1), Sharpton 1 (+1), Braun 0 (0) (CM)
12/14-12/15: Dean 42 (+5), Kerry 19 (-5), Clark 13 (+5), Edwards 7 (-2), Lieberman 5 (0), Gephardt 3 (-4) (BG)
12/10-12/15: Dean 46 (+8), Kerry 17 (+1), Clark 10 (+5), Lieberman 7 (+3), Edwards 4 (-1), Gephardt 3 (0), Braun 1 (+1), Kucinich 1 (+1), Sharpton 1 (+1) (UNH)
12/06-12/08: Dean 41, Kerry 15, Clark 14, Lieberman 9, Edwards 6, Gephardt 4 (RR)
12/01-12/04: Dean 39 (+6), Kerry 14 (-5), Clark 5 (-2), Edwards 5 (+1), Lieberman 4 (+1), Gephardt 3 (-1), Braun 1 (+1), Kucinich 1 (0), Sharpton 1 (+1) (FPC)
11/17-12/01: Dean 34, Kerry 20, Clark 8, Lieberman 8, Gephardt 5, Edwards 4, Braun 1, Kucinich 1, Sharpton 1 (PR)
12/01-12/03: Dean 42 (+2), Kerry 12 (-5), Clark 9 (+3), Lieberman 7 (+4), Edwards 4 (-2), Gephardt 3 (-1), Kucinich 2 (+2), Sharpton 0.5 (+0.5), Braun 0.1 (+0.1) (ZI)
11/11-11/13: Dean 44, Kerry 23, Edwards 7, Gephardt 6, Lieberman 6, Clark 3, Kucinich 3, Sharpton 1, Braun 0 (MI)
10/16-10/20: Dean 33, Kerry 18, Clark 14, Lieberman 6, Edwards 5, Gephardt 5 (R2K)
February 3
AZ: 01/06-01/12: Dean 29 (+10), Clark 26 (+12), Lieberman 6 (-3), Gephardt 4 (-1), Kerry 3 (-6), Edwards 3 (+2), Sharpton 2 (0), Braun 1, Kucinich 1 (BRC)
01/09-01/11: Clark 39 (+12), Dean 32 (+4), Lieberman 8 (-2), Kerry 5 (-2), Gephardt 4 (-6) (SUSA)
12/26-12/29: Dean 22, Clark 19, Lieberman 7, Edwards 4, Gephardt 4, Kerry 3 (AR)
12/20-12/23: Dean 26, Clark 15, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 7, Kerry 6, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1, Braun 0, Sharpton 0 (ARG)
11/14-12/09: Dean 22, Clark 12, Lieberman 9, Kerry 8, Gephardt 7, Braun 2, Kucinich 1, Edwards 0, Sharpton 0 (NAU)
DE: 01/12-01/14: Dean 27, Clark 18, Sharpton 13, Gephardt 11, Lieberman 10, Kerry 7, Edwards 6 (SUSA)
11/??-11/??: Lieberman 19, Dean 15, Gephardt 12, Clark 10, Kerry 8, Sharpton 4, Edwards 3, Braun 0, Kucinich 0 (MD)
MO: 01/09-01/11: Gephardt 37, Dean 19, Clark 15, Kerry 6, Edwards 5, Lieberman 5 (SUSA)
09/08-09/09: Gephardt 36, Dean 22, Kerry 14, Lieberman 10, Edwards 5, Clark 2, Braun 0, Kucinich 0, Sharpton 0 (R2K)
NM: 09/08-09/10: Dean 18, Lieberman 14, Kerry 10, Gephardt 7, Kucinich 3, Edwards 1, Braun 0, Sharpton 0 (AJ)
ND:
OK: 12/20-12/23: Dean 24, Clark 21, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 4, Edwards 3, Kerry 2, Braun 1, Kucinich 1, Sharpton 1 (ARG)
12/13-12/15: Clark 32, Dean 21, Lieberman 11, Gephardt 8, Edwards 7, Kerry 5 (SUSA)
12/??-12/??: Lieberman 10, Clark 9, Dean 9, Gephardt 8, Kerry 5, Edwards 3, Sharpton 2, Kucinich 1 (OKP)
09/22-09/30: Clark 16.5, Dean 12.7, Lieberman 11.6, Edwards 11, Gephardt 10.5, Kerry 3.5 (TW)
SC: 01/11-01/13: Dean 25 (+4), Clark 23 (+4), Edwards 17 (+2), Sharpton 12 (-3), Gephardt 6 (-3), Braun 4 (+1), Lieberman 5 (0), Kerry 2 (0), Kucinich 1 (0) (SUSA)
12/17-12/21: Dean 16 (+7), Clark 12 (-3), Sharpton 12 (+3), Edwards 11 (-1), Gephardt 7 (0), Lieberman 7 (-2), Braun 3 (0), Kerry 2 (-1), Kucinich 1 (0) (ARG)
12/02-12/04: Dean 11, Clark 9, Lieberman 9, Edwards 7, Gephardt 7, Sharpton 7, Kerry 4, Braun 3, Kucinich 0.3 (ZI)
11/18-12/01: Edwards 16, Clark 10, Gephardt 10, Lieberman 9, Sharpton 8, Dean 7, Kerry 3, Braun 2, Kucinich 0 (PR)
11/20-11/23: Edwards 17, Sharpton 12, Dean 11, Clark 10, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 8, Braun 6, Kerry 5, Kucinich 1 (FG)
10/02-10/13: Edwards 14, Gephardt 13, Clark 12, Lieberman 11, Dean 10, Sharpton 10, Kerry 8 (DC)
10??-10/??: Edwards 23, Dean 12, Lieberman 12, Clark 9, Gephardt 7, Sharpton 6, Kerry 5, Braun 4, Kucinich 1 (GSG)
February 7
MI: 10/06-10/09: Dean 21, Clark 15, Gephardt 13, Kerry 13, Lieberman 12, Braun 4, Sharpton 4, Kucinich 2, Edwards 1 (E/M)
WA: 12/??-12/??: Dean, Clark (EP)
February 8
ME: 09/13-09/26: Dean 18, Kerry 18, Clark 14, Gephardt 12, Lieberman 11, Braun 3, Kucinich 1, Edwards 0, Sharpton 0 (CI)
February 10
DC:
TN: 01/05-01/07: Dean 26, Clark 25, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 8, Edwards 7, Kerry 5 (SUSA)
10/20-11/08: Clark 10.6, Lieberman 10.6, Dean 6.3, Edwards 5.9, Gephardt 5.7, Kerry 4.1, Braun 2.3, Sharpton 1.3, Kucinich 0.4 (MTSU)
VA: 12/03-12/05: Dean 21, Lieberman 13, Clark 11, Gephardt 8, Kerry 7, Sharpton 6, Edwards 5, Kucinich 1, Braun 0 (MD)
February 14
NV:
February 17
WI: 12/13-12/16: Dean 33 (+20), Lieberman 12 (-2), Clark 11 (-7), Gephardt 9 (-2), Kerry 6 (-1), Kucinich 3 (+2), Edwards 2 (+1), Braun 1 (-2), Sharpton 0 (0) (WP)
10/27-11/06: Dean 21, Lieberman 16, Clark 13 (SNC)
February 24
HI:
ID:
UT:
March 2
CA: 01/05-01/13: Dean 25 (+11), Clark 20 (+3), Lieberman 12 (-2), Kerry 7 (-2), Gephardt 6 (+1), Kucinich 3 (+2), Sharpton 3 (-1), Edwards 3 (+2) (FP)
01/03-01/11: Dean 31, Clark 14, Lieberman 8, Kerry 6, Gephardt 5 (PPI)
09/25-09/27: Clark 19, Dean 15, Lieberman 14, Kerry 8, Gephardt 5, Braun 4, Edwards 4, Kucinich 3, Sharpton 3, Graham 0 (U/C/G)
CT: 11/12-11/18: Lieberman 28 (-5), Dean 23 (+6), Kerry 14 (0), Clark 9 (-5), Gephardt 8 (+3), Braun 3 (+2), Edwards 3 (0), Kucinich 1 (+1), Sharpton 1 (-1) (QU)
GA: 12/15-12/16: Dean 18.8 (+11.4), Gephardt 7.5 (-4.0), Clark 6.5 (-6.6), Sharpton 5.6 (+2.3), Lieberman 5.5 (-3.5), Kerry 2.7 (-2.2), Braun 2.6 (-2.8), Edwards 1.9 (-1.9), Kucinich 0.2 (-0.6) (AJC)
10??-10/??: Clark 12, Lieberman 11, Gephardt 10, Dean 9, Sharpton 7, Braun 6, Edwards 3, Kerry 2, Kucinich 0 (SRG)
MD: 01/02-01/12: Dean 25, Clark 12, Lieberman 10, Gephardt 8, Kerry 6, Braun 3, Edwards 3, Sharpton 3, Kucinich 2 (PSR)
10/20-10/26: Dean 23 (-2), Lieberman 20 (-3), Clark 11 (), Gephardt 9 (-1), Edwards 7 (+) Kerry 7 (-4), Sharpton 6 (+1), Braun 2 (?), Kucinich 1 (?) (GA)
MA: 11/19-11/22: Dean 27, Kerry 24, Clark 6 (BG)
11/19-11/21: Dean 33, Kerry 24, Clark 7, Lieberman 4, Gephardt 3 (BH)
MN:
NY: 01/06-01/08: Dean 26 (+8), Lieberman 12 (-4), Clark 10 (-4), Sharpton 8 (+3), Gephardt 6 (-4), Kerry 6 (-3), Braun 2 (0), Edwards 2 (0), Kucinich 2 (0) (MI)
11/12-11/15: Dean 21, Clark 10, Gephardt 7, Kerry 7, Lieberman 6, Sharpton 6, Braun 1, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1 (ZI)
10/29-11/03: Lieberman 17 (+4), Dean 15 (-2), Clark 12 (-6), Kerry 11 (-1), Sharpton 11 (+5), Gephardt 9 (+4) (QU)
OH: 12/31-01/09: Dean 29 (+20), Clark 17 (+11), Gephardt 16 (+2), Kucinich 11 (-1), Lieberman 11 (-7), Kerry 7 (-2), Edwards 5 (+4), Sharpton 0 (-6), Braun 0 (-4) (0) (OHP)
RI: 09/13-09/15: Dean 17, Kerry 17, Lieberman 17, Gephardt 7, Braun 3, Sharpton 2, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1 (BU)
VT: 10/28-10/30: Dean 47, Kerry 18, Clark 8, Lieberman 6, Edwards 5, Gephardt 4, Kucinich 3, Sharpton 1, Braun 0 (R2K)
March 9
FL: 12/01-12/03: Dean 16, Clark 15, Lieberman 15, Gephardt 8.5, Kerry 6, Edwards 3, Sharpton 3, Braun 2, Kucinich 0.5 (SA)
11/17-11/21: Lieberman 21, Dean 17, Clark 14, Gephardt 11, Kerry 6, Sharpton 4, Edwards 3, Braun 1, Kucinich 1 (MD)
LA:
MS:
TX: 11/14-12/06: Dean 16, Clark 14, Lieberman 14 (SH)
March 13
KS:
March 16
IL: 01/12-01/14: Dean 29 (+18), Gephardt 16 (0), Braun 14 (-8), Clark 13, Kerry 7 (-1), Edwards 6 (+2), Lieberman 5 (-10), Sharpton 4 (+1), Kucinich 1 (SUSA)
01/06-01/11: Dean 24 (+14), Gephardt 12 (-1), Clark 10 (-1), Braun 9 (0), Kerry 5 (-3), Lieberman 5 (-3), Edwards 2 (+1), Kucinich 1 (0), Sharpton 1 (-1) (CT)
March 20
AK:
WY:
April 13
CO:
April 27
PA: 12/11-12/14: Dean 28 (+23), Lieberman 17 (+2), Gephardt 10 (0), Clark 9 (-8), Kerry 7 (-11), Edwards 4 (-3), Braun 3 (0), Sharpton 3 (-1), Kucinich 1 (-1) (QU)
11/23-12/08: Dean 19, Lieberman 12, Clark 10, Kerry 10, Gephardt 6, Braun 3, Sharpton 3, Kucinich 2, Edwards 0 (MC)
10/27-11/16: Lieberman 12, Dean 11, Sharpton 10, Gephardt 7, Clark 6, Kerry 6, Braun 2, Edwards 1, Kucinich 0 (KP)
May 4
IN:
NC: 01/05-01/08: Edwards 40 (-3), Dean 26 (+1), Clark 7 (+1), Kerry 6 (-3), Gephardt 5 (-2), Lieberman 3 (-2), Kucinich 1 (0), Sharpton 1 (0), Braun 0 (0) (R2K)
May 11
NE:
WV:
May 18
AR:
KY:
OR:
June 1
AL: 11/17-12/09: Dean 11, Lieberman 11, Clark 9, Gephardt 9, Sharpton 9, Braun 7, Kerry 4, Edwards 3 (unknown)
09/29-10/02: Clark 13, Gephardt 11, Lieberman 9, Sharpton 9, Dean 5, Edwards 4 (MR)
SD:
June 8
MT:
NJ: 11/16-11/19: Dean 19, Lieberman 15, Kerry 14, Clark 13, Gephardt 8, Sharpton 7, Braun 6, Edwards 3, Kucinich 1 (R2K)
11/06-11/10: Dean 16 (+4), Lieberman 16 (-1), Kerry 15 (+1), Clark 11 (-5), Gephardt 9 (-4), Braun 6 (+4), Sharpton 5 (-4), Edwards 2 (-2), Kucinich 0 (0) (QU)
Pollsters:
AJ = Albuquerque Journal
AJC = Atlanta Journal-Constitution
AR = Arizona Republic
ARG = American Research Group
BG = Boston Globe
BH = Boston Herald
BRC = Behavior Research Group
BU = Brown University
CI = Critical Insights
CM = Concord Monitor
DC = Democracy Corps
E/M = EPIC / MRA
EP = Elway Poll
FG = Feldman Group (D)
FP = Field Poll
FPC = Franklin Pierce College
GA = Gonzales / Arscott Research
GSG = Global Stragegy Group (Edwards)
IP = Iowa Poll
LAT = Los Angeles Times
MC = Muhlenberg College
MD = Mason-Dixon
MG = Mellman Group (Kerry)
MI - Marist Institute
MR = Mobile Register
MTSU = Middle Tennessee State University
NAU = Northern Arizona University
OHP = Ohio Poll
OKP = Oklahoma Poll
PPI = Public Policy Institute
PR = Pew Research
PSR = Potomac Survey Research
QU = Quinnipiac University
R2K = Research 2000
RR = Rasmussen Reports
SA = Schroth & Associates
SH = Scripps-Howard
SNC = Saint Norbert College
SRG = Shapiro Research Group (D)
SU = Suffolk University
SUSA = Survey USA
TW = Tulsa World
U/C/G = USA Today / CNN / Gallup
WP = WisPolitics.com
ZI = Zogby International