Stand Up

For more than thirty years, starting with Nixon, not a State of the Union address has gone past without some mention of the increasing dependence of the United States on foreign oil.   Every president, Bush included, has ratcheted up the rhetoric and hand-wringing, but except for initial efforts under Carter -- quickly rolled back by Mr. Morning in America -- no one has really done a damn thing about it.  What was a crisis at 35% in 1974, is an utter disaster at 65% in 2006.  Make that 65% and climbing, as our import numbers were worse again in 2006.

At the same time, what we're doing with all that oil, and with our home-dug coal, is threatening to change our world beyond recognition.  Next week, the latest assessment on global warming prepared by an international assembly of experts shows that devastating climate change is going to hit sooner than we expected, harder than we expected, and bring more human suffering than we can imagine.  For anyone still harboring any doubt about what we're facing, here's the verdict from thousands of climate specialists.

• 12 of the past 13 years were the warmest since records began;

• ocean temperatures have risen at least three kilometres beneath the surface;

• glaciers, snow cover and permafrost have decreased in both hemispheres;

• sea levels are rising at the rate of almost 2mm a year;

• cold days, nights and frost have become rarer while hot days, hot nights and heatwaves have become more frequent.

We are years, not decades, away from devastating floods and famine that will leave hundreds of millions homeless. If we wait until these effects are fully developed before take action, the momentum of change will be that much harder to halt. By the end of this century, unchecked climate change will leave us with a world almost unrecognizable.

To date, these changes have caused global temperatures to rise by 0.6C. The most likely outcome of continuing rises in greenhouses gases will be to make the planet a further 3C hotter by 2100, although the report acknowledges that rises of 4.5C to 5C could be experienced. Ice-cap melting, rises in sea levels, flooding, cyclones and storms will be an inevitable consequence.

It wasn't too long ago, that 2C was the outside of the prediction envelope.  The better we understand what we're facing, the worse it looks.  Keep in mind that this report is regarded by many as a conservative estimate, covering only the areas where all participants agreed.  Then imagine what the worst scenarios are like.

A few weeks ago, my contacts in the energy industry were sweating over the idea that Bush was actually going to stop simply flapping his thin lips over global warming and oil addition.  They feared he was going to take real action.  Action like setting non-voluntary limits on carbon emissions, and placing new requirements on vehicle performance.  Folks high up in coal and oil had been consulted and warned that carbon caps were coming off the drawing board.  They didn't like it, but they were pragmatically preparing to deal with the change.

Then came multiple reassurances from the White House that these actions weren't going to happen.  Tony Snow promised repeatedly that mandatory limits weren't in the works.  Even with some corporate CEOs begging for change, it looked as if Bush may be backing away from taking any effective step.  Now the picture on what's going to happen is about as clear as our exit strategy in Iraq.

Let's just spell it out in shorthand:

The consequences of our dependence on imported oil are a much greater threat to US national security than al Qaeda (and in effect, al Qaeda is a subset of the problems generated by this cause).

The effects of global warming are a much greater threat to the security, stability, and future of our nation than every dictator, rogue state, rampaging militia, puppet government, drug lord, and terrorist on the planet.

International terrorism is a challenge of our lifetimes.  Finding clean, sustainable means of dealing with our need for energy is the challenge of our lifetimes.  Solving it won't prevent anything else from being an issue.  But ignoring it will assure that everything else is doomed to fall.

This problem won't be solved in the space of a single political season, and solutions won't show immediate results.  They'll demand two things that have been utterly lacking from this administration, and all too rare in every administration: a willingness to place the long-term good of the nation above the short term gains of the powerful, and the political courage to both make and demand real and lasting sacrifice from the American people.

Stand up, Mr. President.  We can but hope that you will stand up to be counted, if only this one time in your life.  Whether you do or not, the Democratic congress must act now, sharply and agressively, to address these issues.

[Speaker Nancy Pelosi] warned that their next challenge would be a lot tougher than popular issues such as student loans and ethics reforms. For her next act, she planned to take on global warming.

Quoting again from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

And in a specific rebuff to sceptics who still argue natural variation in the Sun's output is the real cause of climate change, the panel says mankind's industrial emissions have had five times more effect on the climate than any fluctuations in solar radiation. We are the masters of our own destruction, in short.

It will not be enough at this point to call for decreased use of gasoline, if that call does not come without serious action.  It will not be enough to call for decrease in CO2, if that doesn't mean mandatory (and ever tightening) limits.   It will not be enough to call for new sources of energy, if the first call isn't to simply using less energy through conservation.

Mention switchgrass and coal to liquids and ethanol all you want.  Talk up research.  Sing the praises of hydrogen.  We're past that.  Stand up, or get out of the way.