Kerry's lead in Michigan narrows according to poll released by American Research Group, Inc., August 20, 2004.
John Kerry and George W. Bush are essentially (within MOE) tied among likely voters in Michigan according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 48% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 45% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 1% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters are undecided.
In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Kerry is at 49% and Bush is at 46%, with 5 undecided.
These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Michigan. Of the 600 likely voters, 35% consider themselves to be Republicans, 38% consider themselves to be Democrats, and 27% consider themselves to be Independents. The interviews were conducted August 17 through 19, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
Michigan likely voters:
Aug 19 (Jul 8)
George W. Bush:....45% (43%)
John Kerry:............48% (50%)
Ralph Nader:............1% (2%)
Undecided:...............6% (5%)
Kerry was running stronger among men in early July (48% Bush and 46% Kerry among men in July). In this survey, Bush leads Kerry 49% to 44% among men (49% of likely voters). Kerry's 49% to 40% lead over Bush among Independents in early July has been narrowed to a 48% to 44% lead for Kerry in the latest survey.
In terms of awareness and favorability, all likely voters say they are aware of George W. Bush and John Kerry. A total of 54% of likely voters say they have a favorable opinion of Bush and 44% say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush. A total of 54% of likely voters say they have a favorable opinion of Kerry and 41% say they have an unfavorable opinion of Kerry. A total of 88% of likely voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Ralph Nader.
Awareness and favorability:
Aware Favorable Unfavorable Undecided
George W. Bush:
Aug 19 100% 54% 44% 2%
July 8 100% 50% 47% 3%
John Kerry:
Aug 19 100% 54% 41% 5%
July 8 100% 57% 38% 5%
Ralph Nader:
Aug 19 100% 7% 88% 5%
July 8 100% 5% 89% 6%
A total of 89% of Republicans say they have a favorable opinion of Bush and 72% of Democrats say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush. A total of 90% of Democrats say they have a favorable opinion of Kerry and 78% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Kerry. A total of 96% of Republicans, 91% of Democrats, and 75% of
Independents have an unfavorable opinion of Nader.
About this survey:
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely voters in Michigan. Of the 600 likely voters, 35% consider themselves to be Republicans, 38% consider themselves to be Democrats, and 27% consider themselves to be Independents. Sample Dates: August 17-19, 2004. Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.