What Good is Polling?

An interesting question... and the answer is it tells you stuff you didn't know, it reinforces stuff you did, and provides data on who thinks what about which. In 2004, I described the difference between 'oh my God' (I don't believe it, it must be wrong) polls and 'aha!' (see, I told you) polls. So, let's see if you know what Frank Newport (from Gallup) knows (Ten Ten things you may not know).

I especially like #10:

A majority of Americans – somewhat paradoxically -- say that being able to bring about change in Washington and having a lot of experience in Washington are desirable traits for the next president

and I also appreciate living in a reality-based community:

Democrats are twice as likely as Republicans to have a great deal/fair amount of trust in the news media to report news accurately and fairly.  To be specific, only 33% of Republicans trust the news media, compared to 66% of Democrats

OTOH, what polls don't do is predict winners, especially in Iowa where caucuses are tough to poll (more than one round, second favorite choice really matters, etc), and especially this early out. So read the polls, learn some things, support pollster.com's disclosure project, and don't freak out because your guy lost a point or is 5 points behind. And don't shoot the messenger... no one's out to get you, just out to teach you.