Last September when I posted my first diary suggesting that John Kerry would be the strongest candidate against Bush, I was ridiculed by the conventional wisdom on this site that Dean had things sewed up. At the risk of attracting more scorn, I now suggest that all this talk about the election being "Kerry's to lose" is very premature.
Since I have been raising money here in California for Kerry since August 2003, I think I have the right to say that I believe in our nominee - heck, I believed when the press and most Kossaks said he was politically dead. Here is my concern:
1.The race is still extremely close: Bush has just posted his first lead in a national poll this month (Gallup completed 8/11) that shows him up by 2 points. The key swing states are still fluctuating between candidates and the Republicans have yet to have their convention.
2.NY Convention will target Kerry: The Republicans have already told us that the convention will make Senator Kerry out to be the object of "derision and ridicule", with the objective of making him seem like a high risk as Commander-in-Chief in a time of war. The groundwork has already been laid with recent attacks on a "sensitive" war on terrorists.
3.The Smears are just getting started: The Swift Boat Vets Slime machine is starting to gain some traction. Limbaugh and Drudge are in full cry over this and its clear that Rove is directly involved. He has been quoted as saying, "by the time we are through with him, people won't know what side he was fighting for". Clearly, now that Bush and Cheney are desperate, they will use any kind of smear to disprove the Kerry war record of valor and courage under fire. This may backfire on them, but some recent polling has shown that the charges of fake medals are making undecided voters less willing to take a chance on Kerry.
4.The electoral count is still a reach: Assuming that the states will fall roughly into line with 2000 results, to win Kerry has to gain several states from Bush. If we win Ohio or Florida, then Teresa can start measuring the oval office for new drapes. But, Jeb Bush still controls the vote counting machinery in Florida and the Kerry campaign must assume that Republican corruption will again prevail. In Ohio, Bush has the lead in 5 of 9 polls taken within the past 30 days, during the period when Kerry was getting at least a modest bounce from the Democratic convention.
Without Ohio or Florida, Kerry will have to grab New Hampshire, West Virginia and Nevada, something like drawing an inside straight - while at the same time not losing any of the Gore states. Some that continue to be very close are Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. Other states, like Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Colorado and Arizona are far less likely to vote democratic.
It is far too early to get overconfident or complacent. Bush still has the power of the government to use against us. Powerful interests (corporate polluters, war profiteers and evangelicals) have a real vested interest in keeping the status quo. This will still be a dogfight until the last vote and I personally think that Kerry will have to prove once again that he is a great closer, because I expect Bush to have a slight lead after 9/11/04.