We're now in the zone where we can take an educated guess (i.e. a bit better than flipping a coin) at the weather on Election Day, November 2nd.
Weather.com relies on
National Weather Service predictions, and those results are summarized below the fold, including precipitation probabilities and high/low temperatures. I've picked cities in each swing state to reasonably cover the entire geography of that state. I've also included a couple geographic hints just in case you don't know where, say, Marietta, Ohio, is. I have not included Oregon because it is a mail-in voting state.
Key:
Excellent Weather States (precip 0 percent, w/ max one minor exception)
Fair Weather States
IFFY WEATHER STATES (precip 40+ percent somewhere)
Conventional wisdom holds that poor weather favors Republicans, although this year that CW is open for debate. Democrats seem awfully fired up, and a lot of them are casting ballots early.
Arizona
Phoenix: Sunny (0%), 79/57.
Tucson: Sunny (0%), 76/51.
Yuma: Sunny (0%), 81/58.
ARKANSAS
El Dorado (south): Showers (60%), 70/48.
Fayetteville: Scattered Showers (30%), 61/33.
Ft. Smith: Scattered Showers (30%), 67/41.
Little Rock: Rain (60%), 65/46.
Colorado
Denver: Partly Cloudy (10%), 56/38.
Pueblo: Mostly Sunny (10%), 63/27.
Steamboat Springs (northwest): Mostly Cloudy (20%), 43/24.
Telluride (southwest): Partly Cloudy (20%), 44/25.
Florida
Daytona Beach: Mostly Sunny (0%), 81/67.
Fort Myers: Partly Cloudy (0%), 85/67.
Gainesville: Partly Cloudy (0%), 79/62.
Jacksonville: Partly Cloudy (0%), 77/62.
Key West: Partly Cloudy (0%), 84/75.
Melbourne: Mostly Sunny (0%), 81/68.
Miami: Partly Cloudy (0%), 83/73.
Orlando: Mostly Sunny (0%), 82/66.
Pensacola: Partly Cloudy (20%), 76/62.
Tallahassee: Partly Cloudy (0%), 79/59.
Tampa: Partly Cloudy (0%), 83/66.
West Palm Beach: Partly Cloudy (0%), 83/70.
Iowa
Council Bluffs (west): Partly Cloudy (10%), 53/31.
Davenport: AM Clouds/PM Sun (0%), 52/29.
Des Moines: Partly Cloudy (10%), 52/32.
Keokuk (southeast): AM Clouds/PM Sun (10%), 53/31.
Mason City (north): Partly Cloudy (10%), 47/28.
LOUISIANA
(Note: Open primary for Senate; run-off in December.)
Baton Rouge: Partly Cloudy (20%), 79/59.
Monroe (north): Showers (60%), 72/52.
New Orleans: Partly Cloudy (20%), 79/65.
MAINE 2nd CD
Bangor: Showers (60%), 54/37.
Presque Isle (north): Showers (60%), 48/31.
Michigan
Alpena (northeast LP): Mostly Cloudy (20%), 51/33.
Detroit: Cloudy (20%), 54/38.
Kalamazoo: Mostly Cloudy (10%), 54/36.
Marquette (UP): Cloudy (20%), 45/30.
Pontiac (east LP): Cloudy (10%), 53/36.
Traverse City: Mostly Cloudy (10%), 52/35.
Minnesota
Duluth: Partly Cloudy (20%), 39/29.
International Falls (north): Partly Cloudy (10%), 37/26.
Mankato (southeast): Partly Cloudy (10%), 44/30.
Minneapolis/St. Paul: Partly Cloudy (20%), 46/33.
Moorhead (west): Partly Cloudy (10%), 43/28.
Winona (southeast): Partly Cloudy (10%), 47/31.
MISSOURI
Branson/Springfield: Scattered Showers (40%), 62/33.
Cape Girardeau: Rain (60%), 60/33.
Columbia: AM Clouds/PM Sun (10%), 57/32.
Ft. Leonard Wood: AM Clouds/PM Sun (20%), 61/32.
Jefferson City: AM Clouds/PM Sun (20%), 58/33.
Kirksville: Partly Cloudy (10%), 53/31.
St. Louis: Showers (40%), 58/32.
Nevada
Elko (northeast): Scattered Showers (30%), 54/29.
Las Vegas: Mostly Sunny (0%), 72/53.
Reno: Partly Cloudy (0%), 60/38.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Berlin (north): Showers (40%), 52/30.
Concord: Partly Cloudy (20%), 56/37.
Lebanon: Scattered Showers (30%), 54/35.
Portsmouth: Partly Cloudy (20%), 55/38.
New Mexico
Albuquerque: Mostly Sunny (0%), 61/37.
Gallup (west): Partly Cloudy (0%), 57/25.
Lovington (northeast): Mostly Sunny (0%), 65/41.
Roswell (southeast): Mostly Sunny (0%), 65/41.
Santa Fe: Mostly Sunny (0%), 53/28.
North Carolina
Asheville: Mostly Cloudy (10%), 62/48.
Cape Hatteras: Partly Cloudy (0%), 70/59.
Chapel Hill: Partly Cloudy (20%), 66/48.
Charlotte: Partly Cloudy (20%), 66/52.
Raleigh/Durham: Partly Cloudy (10%), 67/52.
Wilmington: Partly Cloudy (0%), 72/53.
Winston-Salem: Partly Cloudy (20%), 64/50.
OHIO
Cincinnati: Light Rain (60%), 58/36.
Cleveland: Few Showers (30%), 52/37.
Columbus: Showers (60%), 55/37.
Dayton: Light Rain (60%), 54/38.
Marietta (southeast): Showers (40%), 57/35.
Toledo: Cloudy (20%), 53/34.
Youngstown: Few Showers (30%), 51/34.
Pennsylvania
Erie: Scattered Showers (30%), 51/40.
Harrisburg: Mostly Cloudy (20%), 56/43.
Philadelphia: Mostly Cloudy (10%), 59/45.
Pittsburgh: Showers (30%), 52/35.
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre: Scattered Showers (30%), 53/38.
State College: Scattered Showers (30%), 52/38.
TENNESSEE
Chattanooga: Mostly Cloudy (10%), 66/52.
Knoxville: Mostly Cloudy (10%), 66/51.
Memphis: Showers (60%), 64/45.
Nashville: Showers (40%), 62/45.
Virginia
Fairfax (DC suburbs): Partly Cloudy (10%), 60/41.
Norfolk: Partly Cloudy (10%), 66/49.
Richmond: Partly Cloudy (10%), 65/45.
Roanoke: Partly Cloudy (20%), 61/45.
WEST VIRGINIA
Beckley (south): Scattered Showers (30%), 54/38.
Elkins: Showers (30%), 58/34.
Charleston: Showers (30%), 58/39.
Morgantown (north): Showers (40%), 54/36.
Parkersburg: Showers (40%), 57/35.
Wisconsin
Ashland: Mostly Cloudy (10%), 44/30.
Eau Claire: Partly Cloudy (10%), 47/30.
Green Bay: Mostly Cloudy (10%), 52/32.
La Crosse: Partly Cloudy (10%), 49/33.
Madison: Partly Cloudy (10%), 51/31.
Milwaukee: Partly Cloudy (10%), 53/35.
Wausau: Mostly Cloudy (20%), 47/29.
Summary
- Bush states at CW weather risk: Arizona, Florida, New Mexico.
- Kerry states at CW weather risk: Arkansas, Louisiana, Maine 2nd CD, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Tennessee, West Virginia.
- Current weather CW advantage: Kerry (slight). It's Florida (of course) -- Bush has more swing 2000 EVs under the sun than Kerry has Gore EVs in the rain. In fact, the only Gore swing territory where it's unambiguously expected to rain is Maine's 2nd CD (one electoral vote). The sun will be shining on Arizona and, more importantly, Florida.
If there's enough interest, I'll repost with updates periodically until Election Day. I'd also welcome comments on format and whether I've missed a state or two (or city or two).
Also, I'd be curious if anyone knows how to look up the actual weather in these cities for November 7, 2000. I know Louisiana had awful weather -- tornadoes struck the state on 11/6 -- but otherwise have very little information. That would help make the "CW advantage" score much more meaningful, by comparing the 2004 Election Day weather forecast with 11/7/00's actual weather.