From the Department of Labor
In the week ending Jan. 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 364,000, an increase of 43,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 321,000. The 4-week moving average was 333,000, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 332,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2 percent for the week ending Dec. 25, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.2 percent.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Dec. 18 were in Alaska (5.1 percent), Puerto Rico (3.3), Pennsylvania (3.2), Idaho (3.1), Michigan (3.1), Oregon (3.1), New Jersey (2.9), Washington (2.9), Wisconsin (2.9), Massachusetts (2.8), and New York (2.8).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Dec. 25 were in Indiana (+9,025), Pennsylvania (+8,631), Wisconsin (+8,610), Kentucky (+7,875), and Michigan (+4,452), while the largest decreases were in Georgia (-2,710), North Carolina (-1,730), South Carolina (-1,526), Tennessee (-1,093), and Florida(-1,080).
Comments
First, the average consensus forecast was for 330,000, or an increase of 9000. There have been numerous problems with economic forecasting in the employment sector for the last half of 2004. I haven't seen anyone explain why this has happened, but it has.
Secondly, This is a 1 week jump in a number that can be very volatile. The 4-week moving average only increased 750. Most economists use the moving average because it smooths out the bumps in the road.
Third, employers like to dismiss people are the end of the year. I have no idea why. So this number could be a result of that happy tradition.
But, the jobs picture, to me, is deeply troubling. Last year the economy grew at a 4% rate, and we are still barely creating enough jobs to make-up for lost jobs. And these numbers don't help.
Still, it looks like we have turned the corner again...no really, we've turned the corner....just last week....I can feel it in my bones...(sarcasm off)