One of Kerry's most effective messages so far has been that Bush lives in a fantasy world, particularly in regard to Iraq, of which he has painted an absurdly rosy picture.
The Bush campaign knows that that Kerry will make this point again tonight. And they might just play defense on the issue, and have Bush trot out his worn-out slogans.
Or, they could have Bush state right at the beginning that things are not going well, and somehow spin that in his direction-- by saying, for example, that we need to be firm, not change horses, etc.
This would be the more risky, and possibly more rewarding maneuver. Will they go for it? How will Kerry respond, if so (I hope he has something prepared for such an occurence)?
Whatever happens, I'm glad Kerry gets the first question.