In an attempt to find out where the candidates are today in the electoral vote I used the following formula:
- Take median of Bush vs. Kerry in the last six national polls.
- Average Bush or Kerry's lead with the partisan index for each state found here: http://www.mydd.com/special/president
- Adjust MA +6.5 toward Dems for Kerry at head of ticket and NC +4.5 for Edwards at VP. Adjust TN -6.5 for not having Gore and CT -4.5 for not having Lieberman since the Partisan index is based on their ticket. No adjustments to Republicans since their adjustment already appears in the 2000 Partisan Index. (I calculated that 6.5 and 4.5 are roughly the respective home state advantages for Pres and VP by checking all elections since 1980 for both the change when someone from a state leaves a party's ticket and when someone else from a state not on the previous ticket enters).
- Average the combined total of procedures above to the latest state poll for each candidate (if no state polls later than 8/17/04 no state poll used).
- Where a national poll or state poll has both Bush vs Kerry matchups and Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader matchups I used the Bush vs. Kerry matchup in states where Nader will not be on the ballot and the Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader matchup where Nader will be on the ballot. See here: http://www.ballot-access.org/2004/electoral.html
This method combines national polls, a state's partisan History and state polls to try to arrive at a relatively objective picture of where the candidates stand today.
This week's result: Bush leads by 2.5% nationally (3% with Nader on the ballot) and leads the electoral vote 323-215
Last week: Bush lead by 4.5% nationally (6% with Nader included) and lead the electoral vote 316-222
Two weeks ago: Bush lead Kerry nationally by 0.5% (1% with Nader included) and lead the electoral vote 281-257
Three weeks ago: Bush and Kerry were tied nationally with or without Nader and Bush lead the electoral vote 284-254.
Electoral Vote Changes this week: OR (7) gooes from Too Close to Call Kerry to Too Close to call Bush.
Other Changes: IL (21) goes from solid Kerry to Lean Kerry.
WI (10) goes from Too Close to Call Bush to Lean Bush
MO (11) goes from Solid Bush to Lean Bush
OH (20) goes from Lean Bush to Too Close to Call Bush
CT (7), VT (3), and DE (3) go from Lean Kerry to Solid Kerry
State by state results in extended text below.
SOLID KERRY STATES (132 electoral votes)
DC (3) Kerry +72.7
MA (12) Kerry +33.9
RI (4) Kerry +26.8
NY (31) Kerry +14.7
HA (4) Kerry +12.6
MD (10) Kerry +11.2
CA (55) Kerry +9.9
DE (3) Kerry +9.6
VT (3) Kerry +8.5
CT (7) Kerry +8.2
LEAN KERRY (47 electoral votes)
IL (21) Kerry +6.5
WA (11) Kerry +4.6
NJ (15) Kerry +4.1
TOO CLOSE TO CALL (122 EV--36 for Kerry, 86 for Bush)
NM (5) Kerry +3.1
ME (4) Kerry +2.8
MI (17) Kerry +2.3
MN (10) Kerry +1.0
OR (7) Bush +0.05
NH (4) Bush +0.8
PA (21) Bush +1.4
IA (7) Bush +2.6
FL (27) Bush +3.5
OH (20) Bush +3.5
LEAN BUSH (54 Electoral Votes)
WI (10) Bush +4.7
MO (11) Bush +5.2
AR (6) Bush +5.3
NV (5) Bush +5.5
CO (9) Bush +6.4
VA (13) Bush +8.0
SOLID BUSH (183 electoral votes)
WV (5) Bush +9.4
TN (11) Bush +11.7
NC (15) Bush +12.2
AZ (10) Bush +12.7
LA (9) Bush +14.1
GA (15) Bush +14.3
AL (9) Bush +14.7
SC (8) Bush +15.7
IN (11) Bush +17.3
KY (8) Bush +18.3
MS (6) bush +20.4
SD (3) Bush +22.6
TX (34) Bush +24.1
KS (6) Bush +24.7
OK (7) Bush +27.5
MT (4) Bush +28.3
ND (3) Bush +30.0
AK (3) Bush +30.7
NE (5) Bush +31.7
ID (4) Bush +35.7
WY (3) Bush +39.8
UT (4) Bush +40.5