Part 2 of 4
We know turn our attention to the Midwest, where there are several competitive races for our enjoyment. This region, stretching from Minnesota to Ohio, has many fiscally conservative Republicans and Democrats, but who are split on social issues. Al Gore carried five of these eight states in 2000, to three for George W. Bush. In this region, the economy will play a major part in how these competitive races play out.
Ohio-Despite being a swing state in Presidential elections, Ohio has a 2:1 GOP majority in the 18 House seats in Ohio, courtesy of a GOP gerrymander. However, this year may well begin the resurrection of the Ohio Democratic Party, moribund for so long. There are not many seats that are competitive, even on paper, but that has not stopped
Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur from recruiting a full slate of Democrats for the House races. The best race to look for in 2004 from the Buckeye State is
OH-14. Normally, Congressman
Steve LaTourette (R) is a safe incumbent-he won with 72% in 2002 against a no-name opponent. However, a scandal resulted in a messy divorce has left him vulnerable. Five Democrats are running to challenge La Tourette in a marginal district. The leader is
State Rep. Ed Jerse, a conservative Democrat who was recruited by Kaptur. Jerse has the experience and the connections to take it to La Tourette. Also running of note is Herb Hammer, a businessman and newspaper theater critic. LaTourette will definately face a competitive battle this year, although he will likely win reelection because of his incumbency.
Another race to look out for is OH-3, occupied by Freshman Mike Turner (R). Political Consultant and Democratic Activist Jane Mitakides filed to challenge Turner, and is considered a strong challenger by Ohio Democrats. Turner won with 58% in 2002 in a good year for Ohio Republicans-keep in mind, though, that Governor Taft is now very unpopular, and the Democrats are making a comeback here. A Mitakides victory, while unlikely, would be part of that comeback.
Indiana-Making up for the lack of excitement in surrounding states is Indiana. This state has four of its nine House seats considered to be competitive in 2004. The first is IN-2, where Freshman Chris Chocola (R) won 50-46 over Jill Long Thompson in 2002. Businessman and Attorney Joe Donnelly is running against Chocola, and is raising money at a fast clip. A recent controversy over a former Chocola aide buying web addresses with "Donnelly" in it may help Donnelly. This race will be worth watching in 2004, as the district is roughly evenly balanced and Chocola is not an intrenched incumbent.
The second race is in IN-7, where Congresswoman Julia Carson (D) may face a rematch with Brose McVey, who lost 53-44 in 2002. Considering that Carson's district is a marginal one, and that McVey would be starting much earlier this time, then this race will surely be competitive. If McVey doesn't run, Carson will face Financial Consultant Bob Croddy, who would be less of a threat. The third race is IN-8, where Congressman John Hostettler (R) won narrowly (51-47) in 2002 against a weak opponent. This time, the Democrats have coalesced behind Jon Jennings, a conservative Democrat who is an ex-Clinton administration official and is an NBA recruiter for the Boston Celtics. Jennings is suprisingly outraising Hostettler by a wide margin, and this race has a great shot of going to the Democrats.
Finally, there is IN-9, where CongressmanBaron Hill (D) is trying to survive in his GOP-leaning district long enough to run for higher office again (as a State Senator, he narrowly lost a Senate race to Dan Coats in 1990). He faces a rematch with a wealthy opponent, Mike Sodrel, who lost 51-46 in 2002. Sodrel doesn't face a primary this time, so he's stronger off than he was in 2002. With Bush likely to carry this district by a wide margin, Hill is going to have to fight for his political life in 2004.
Michigan-Michigan was gerrymandered in 2002 by the GOP, so there is little chance of competitive races here. If there is any seat that will be, it is in MI-7, where Nick "Renegade" Smith (R) is retiring. The GOP has a crowded field, with McCain supporter Joe Schwarz the leader. Schwarz, a liberal Republican, is pro-choice and pro-gun control, and would be a bane in the side of Tom Delay. Considering that the only Democrat with a shot at winning, Al Widner, dropped out a few weeks ago, we might as well root for Schwarz. Jason Seagraves, a businessman and School Tutor, is running as a Democrat. All other seats will almost certainly stay with the incumbents.
Illinois-Illinois has been designed to help incumbents keep their seats, but that hasn't stopped The Land of Lincoln from producing a few competitive races. With the filing deadline past, it has become clear that the Democrats have some opportunities to gain a few seats in this state.
First and foremost among these is IL-8, the seat held for 36 years by Phil Crane. He won 57-43 over Melissa Bean, a talented and energetic candidate, which is his lowest showing in years. Bean is running again, and will likely be competitive against Crane, who is himself facing a primary challenge. I've spoken to Mrs. Bean over the phone, and she is clearly an outstanding person and a great candidate.
Also worth looking out for in case incumbents slip up are IL-11 and IL-15. Jerry Weller (R) in IL-11 and Tim Johnson (R) in IL-15 will be facing County Commissioner Democrats in November. Tari Renner of McLean County and Ralph Lagenheim of Champaign County are their respective Democratic opponents. With both Renner and Lagenheim strong candidates, Weller and Johnson could both have competitive races on their hands.
Wisconsin-Wisconsin is not likely to have any competitive races in 2004, due to redistricting and strong incumbents. However, there are some interesting developements to report. In WI-5, Jim Sensenbrenner is facing Oconomowoc Mayor Gary Kohlenberg, a reform-minded moderate who won by write-in to be elected Mayor. Kohlenberg is considered Sensenbrenner's strongest opponent in years, and has a chance to make this race competitive. In WI-7, Sean Duffy, former MTV "Real World" Star and currently Ashland County DA is considering a bid against David Obey, (D) a progressive Democrat. If he runs, this race will be competitive, due to Duffy's name ID and this district's moderate inclinations.
In Minnesota and Iowa, there will be some competitive elections. In MN-2, Freshman Republican John Kline is facing Teresa Daly, a Burnsville City Councilwoman. This race will be worth watching, as Kline won with 53% in 2002. Peter Idusogie, a political consultant, is also running as a Democrat. In Iowa, there will always be a chance of competitive races due to the fact that four of the five seats are marginal. Jim Leach (R)in IA-2 may face a rematch in 2004 with Julie Thomas, who lost 52-46 in 2002. Jim Nussle (R-IA-1)will likely face ex-State Senator Bill Gluba, a realtor. If State Senator Amanda Ragan runs against Republican Tom Latham in IA-4, Democrats have a good chance to win that seat. Finally, ex-State Rep Gene Blanshan is challenging freshman Republican Steve King. If State Senator Steve Warnstadt (D) runs against King, then all five races could be competitive. Leonard Boswell (D-IA-3) faces a rematch with Stan Thompson in 2004, and will also have a tough fight on his hands.
Finally, Missouri. Although having two open seats being vacated by Democrats, the districts are likely to stay with the Dems because of strong Democratic candidates (State Senator Steve Stoll in MO-3 (the Gephardt seat) and ex-Kansas City Mayor Emanuel Cleaver in MO-5 (Karen McCarthy))and weak GOP candidates.
Tommorow we'll confront a mammoth task: The South, with 13 states to cover (Oklahoma and Kentucky included).